Thursday
30Oct2008
Fearless Forecast - 'High School Musical' Trumps 'A Porno'
Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 12:18PM
We'll get our answer this weekend about one of the big
movie questions of the year: Can you sell a movie with "porno" in the title?
Kevin Smith's
Zack and Miri Make a Porno is the week's widest
release, popping up in something like 2,700 - 3,000 theaters. Ordinarily, of
course, that's a recipe for box office success. Throw
Seth Rogen
into the mix, whose last three films have all made at least $75 million, and
you'd think there's no way Kevin Smith finishes out of the winner's circle.
2 - Zack and Miri ($17.5 million)
3 - Saw V ($13 million)
4 - Changeling ($9 million)
5 - The Haunting of Molly Hartley ($6.5 million)
Don't underestimate High School Musical this weekend. Looking at the daily box office numbers, it has fallen behind Saw V on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, into a second place finish. That's because those are school nights. There should be a lot of new 12-year-olds in line for it this weekend and you can bet there will be some repeat business, too.Saw V has been strong, and though it's not a threat to win the weekend, it can play spoiler to Kevin Smith. Put it this way: Do you think Zack and Miri would make more money if Saw V wasn't in theaters? I say yes.
The other big new release is Changeling, the Clint Eastwood drama starring Angelina Jolie. Despite those names, the film doesn't have very much mainstream appeal: It's a period drama, its subject matter might be too depressing, and it's well over two hours long. It's also not opening in enough theaters to make it a big factor when you have three wide releases expected to do well.
The Top Five:
1 - High School Musical ($21 million)
2 - Zack and Miri ($17.5 million)
3 - Saw V ($13 million)
4 - Changeling ($9 million)
5 - The Haunting of Molly Hartley ($6.5 million)
Last week, we bounced back after kind of being all over the road in the previous Fearless Forecast. Outside of underselling Saw V by $3 million, we did very well. Our predictions were within $1 million on all the other films in the top five, and got the order exactly right. Go team!
Reader Comments (3)
I think your prediction on Changeling is quite high. The early buzz is saying "the worst Eastwood"directed affair in years. I especially love the scathing GQ review that blames Jolie...
As for Zach and Miri, maybe I'll be surprised, but Mr. Smith seems incapable of getting out of the 20-25 million dollar TOTAL, range. Will this movie change all of that...perhaps. But I still can't figure out why the Weinsteins keep throwing money at him.
That this film is not being promoted as a Kevin Smith movie might actually mean there is money to be made for all...
Who knows. I have a date with the local Redbox this weekend, until Synecdoche, New York comes out...
End Stream of Conciousness...Now.
Yeah, that seems real high for a Kevin Smith film, albeit the Rogen factor perhaps pushes it up a bit.
Smith has only had one other movie open this wide - Jay and Silent Bob. That's the first part of it. Rogen helps, too. The controversy won't hurt.
Changeling has been steamrolling the weekday numbers, earning the best per-screen average by far. It's the only movie making better than $1000 per screen, and it's making nearly $3,000 per. So that's a big indicator, especially since audience reviews in its first couple of markets have been favorable. $9 million for a movie in 1,800 isn't a stretch in this instance, and my estimate is actually lower than some I've seen.