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Thursday
09Oct2008

Fearless Forecast - Leo and Crowe Will Outmuscle 'Chihuahua'

You can't blame Body of Lies for being released this week, but the new Leonardo DiCaprio-Russell Crowe film may have a little trouble at the box office because of its political nature. Obviously, the economy continues to plummet; the Dow was around 13,000 in mid-May and today it fell below 9,000 for the first time in five years. That could trigger a down weekend overall at the box office, and the most visible victim of that would be a movie about the war on terror.

It could happen that way, but I'm still picking it to finish in first place at the box office, though not by an extreme margin. Beverly Hills Chihuahua should have a very strong second weekend, based on its mid-week performance.

The other new releases that appear headed for the top five are The Express and Quarantine, and they might be interchangeable. I don't mean in tone, certainly, but just in terms of their weekend receipts. The Express is a football movie that's frankly coming out in the exact wrong time of the year; football is the country's favorite televised sport, and if they're watching real college or pro football, why would they jump in the car and blow $20 or more on dramatized football? This movie needed to be released in mid-August.

As for Quarantine, it's a horror movie that might get some curiosity viewing, but because there will be very few reviews for it, it will basically have to fend for itself. The good news is that there isn't another movie so aggressively targeting the 18 - 24 crowd this weekend.

The Top Five:

1 - Body of Lies ($22.5 million)
2 - Beverly Hills Chihuahua ($18.5 million)
3 - The Express ($13 million)
4 - Quarantine ($11 million)
5 - Eagle Eye ($9.5 million)

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