Wednesday
26Nov2008
Fearless Forecast - Reese and Vince vs. The Vampires
Wednesday, November 26, 2008 at 3:01PM
As we always do on holiday weekends, we give you the
full four- or five-day estimate rather than one that covers Friday - Sunday and
then another one for the grand total. It's too many numbers. So, we've got five
days this week and really six movies that will make a significant amount of
money over that time.
2 - Twilight ($32 million)
3 - Bolt ($30 million)
4 - Quantum of Solace ($23 million)
5- Transporter 3 ($22 million)
Bolt will make money because it's the best family movie out there right now. Last week, it was overwhelmed by Twilight but still managed to do almost $30 million. Over the next five days, it should come close to matching that total again. It's not the runaway hit Disney hoped for, but they've had a great fall already with High School Musical and Beverly Hills Chihuahua, so nobody's crying for them.
Quantum of Solace can do pretty well because it's the sort of movie grown-ups can and will see with their dads. That group of dads is not the opening weekend crowd and they may have known they were going to see the hero of their youth once the holiday rolled around and family was coming into town. For a third weekend, Quantum of Solace will be very competitive.
That leaves the major new releases, and there are three of those - Four Christmases, Transporter 3, and Australia. I hate to break it to Baz Luhrmann fans, but Australia has a huge fight ahead of it. This weekend represents its best shot, and if it doesn't get great word of mouth, it won't play well through the fall and winter. It's three hours long (or so), people are split on Nicole Kidman, and there's a more digestible love story (Twilight) already in theaters. The reviews haven't been great, either, so even though it will do fine this weekend, it needs word of mouth to build over the next few weeks.
Jason Statham is back behind the wheel in Transporter 3. I'm hesitant to say this will make $20 million over the five day stretch, simply because this character is no match for Bond. On the plus side for Transporter, Bond has already done a lot of business with the action movie crowd. Like Australia, though, I don't think there's a lot of wind in these sails. I'd be surprised if it gets past $60 million in total U.S. revenue by the end of its run.
So that leaves Four Christmases, a new comedy starring Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon. This will either be the weekend's big movie or the big goat. All the tracking has it doing mid-30's over the break, but the reviews are gawdawful and with the way Ben Stiller, Owen Wilson, and Will Ferrell have experienced big failures in the past year (Heartbreak Kid, Drillbit Taylor, Semi-Pro), there's no guarantee that Vince can still make a bad comedy play well. And Reese Witherspoon has scored one hit in five years, Walk the Line. We'll give it the weekend, anyway, but it won't be by much, and it may well lose to Twilight. The Top Five: 1 - Four Christmases ($35 million)
2 - Twilight ($32 million)
3 - Bolt ($30 million)
4 - Quantum of Solace ($23 million)
5- Transporter 3 ($22 million)
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