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Tuesday
04Nov2008

Box Office - A 'Quantum' of Dollars Overseas

I have a hunch that Quantum of Solace will be a hit. Brave stance, I know, but when you look at the international numbers this film has managed in its first three days (it will be released in the U.S. on November 14th), the impression it leaves is pretty significant.

By the time it hits our shores, the film will very likely be a $100 million movie. I don't know how many movies can ever claim that, because for global successes, the United States is usually the first place a film targets, or if it's not, it will open here a week after it opens in the major markets like the UK and Japan. But because those release dates were already etched in stone and the studio(s) moved Solace from November 7th to the 14th in the U.S., the movie will already be well on its way to becoming the most successful 007 movie ever.

Despite never hitting number one in the U.S. thanks to Happy Feet, Casino Royale made $167 million here in the states and another $400 million or so overseas. I think $167 million is the lower end of the ballpark for Quantum of Solace, because sequels to big movies almost always outperform the original. Audiences are familiar with Daniel Craig as Bond now, the movie did very well on DVD, and it's been several months since the casual moviegoer had a movie they had to see, and it will also be several months more after this movie.

The Hollywood Reporter says Solace made $39 million on just 2,134 screens around the world this weekend, which is about four times what Changeling or Zack and Miri would've made domestically on a similar number of screens.

That number is all the more impressive when you consider that of the 13 films in history that have higher international debuts, all of them opened in 27 territories or more versus only three for 007, the U.K, France and Sweden. We already reported that the film set a new opening weekend record in the U.K., and Solace is the top opening ever for a Bond movie in France and Sweden.

The film should draw in at least another $75 million this weekend as it rolls into more than 57 new international markets.

To be clear, we're not talking Dark Knight numbers; that was a bit of an anomaly. I mean, only two films in history have ever crossed the half-billion mark in the U.S. Globally, that film has been a tremendous success but not an unprecedented one. But since Dark Knight, we haven't seen a movie really explode the way this has and will continue to. It's not out of the question to think that its global box office will blow past $250 million by November 17th, almost half the amount the movie would need to beat Casino Royale's worldwide mark of $594 million. I would think we're looking at right around $700 million for this one when we're done counting.

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Reader Comments (2)

Do you think that the early negative reviews were tossed out there by nit-picky critics who knew this film would be critic-proof? That it's shattering all kinds of UK records makes me think that the word of mouth has been overwhelmingly positive.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWill

Word of mouth will probably be very strong, because by their nature, audiences want to be entertained. And it's certainly entertaining.

I can see why critics were harsh on it, probably more than they would've been if this were the first movie in the series. There were only a few really negative reviews, most just thought the film wasn't as good as Casino Royale, which is a very high standard.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

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