Thursday
06Nov2008
Fearless Forecast - Mad Money for 'Madagascar'
Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 1:48PM
And so begins a big month of box office activity that
could beat December totals when all is said and done. We have three big releases
this weekend, only one of which will make a huge chunk of change, and then with
Quantum of Solace, Bolt, and Twilight all with blockbuster
potential, November is like a second May, the last month that saw big movie
after big movie after big movie.
Consider this: The first movie opened in third place on Memorial Day weekend back in 2005 with $47 million, albeit against a lot of competition (Star Wars, The Longest Yard). But even though it will easily take a victory lap this weekend, only six movies have opened north of $60 million in 2008, and this doesn't exactly have that aura.
The good news for Madagascar is that it's opening against a couple of very adult-oriented comedies that have modest expectations - Role Models and Soul Men. Role Models is getting great reviews, actually, but probably doesn't have any real staying power. That's tougher to find for comedies, anyway. Soul Men will draw a slightly bigger crowd at first because of the passing of Bernie Mac, but it, too, will struggle after about the second weekend. I think you'd be generous to say that either one of those movies will have a total box office greater than Madagascar's output in just its first three days.
As for the movies already in theaters, the only real story is how close Eagle Eye will get to becoming another $100 million movie for Shia LaBeouf. It's already made $93 million, believe it or not. The rest of them, from Zack and Miri to High School Musical, have pretty much done most of their damage. Changeling is the only film among that group that could still be doing decent business in another couple of weeks, because it draws a much older crowd that will see something they really want to see three weeks late rather than spending money on something just because it's new.
The Top Five:
1 - Madagascar ($49 million)
2 - Soul Men ($12.5 million)
3 - High School Musical ($10 million)
4 - Role Models ($9.5 million)
5 - Changeling ($6.5 million)
Last week, our predictions were thrown off by Halloween night. We apologize for not taking that into consideration. Still, we got the order exactly right, knowing that High School Musical would outdraw Zack and Miri. Our totals for the top three films were off considerably because of the Friday night hiccup, but we finished strong, predicting where The Haunting of Molly Hartley would wind up and suggesting - against the objections of our readers, by the way - that Changeling would do $9 million.
Reader Comments (2)
I didn't think Changeling would do as well as it did, but would agree with you to the tune of plus or minus 3 million dollars. I also agree with you on the fact that this film will steam slowly through the next few months long after bigger pictures have gone away. It's not an event movie, by any means.
Speaking of event movies, I'm proud to say that I didn't pick Zack and Miri to make $75 Million as one of your other readers vehemently proclaimed some months ago...
At this point, I guess it would be safe to say that DVD sales and Trans-Atlantic airline screenings won't cover that spread.
By the way, I had forgotton how well the first Madagascar had done, so thanks for reminding us. I was too busy picking up my Obi-Wan Frock from the dry cleaners back in May of '05.
The first Madagascar made about $550 million worldwide. I think this will easily repeat that, if that is the point to all this.
I hadn't considered Zack and Miri's DVD sales, because it's already going to be profitable. After this weekend, maybe 2.5 million people will have paid to see it, and I think we could say about another million will. If they all buy the DVD, then, yes, this will easily get to $75 million or more, but for just domestic box office...well, that was an absurd notion to begin with.