Thursday
11Dec2008
Breaking Down the Golden Globe Nominations
Thursday, December 11, 2008 at 9:23AM
One thing about the
Golden Globes:
You rarely know what the Hollywood Foreign Press is going to do. The Oscars are
usually easier to predict, in part because it's the last awards show of the
season and there are clear frontrunners and in part because there are a few
traditions the Academy seems to follow. For example, I'm not saying Benjamin
Button would win Best Picture if it gets an Oscar nomination, but we all know
the history with the longest movie in that category. It usually wins.
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
I've seen everything on the list. Revolutionary Road is not being treated favorably by most critics groups. And yet, it has amassed four nominations, meaning it has serious support. The sentimental choice is probably Slumdog, the obvious nominee is Benjamin Button. Frost/Nixon might have an inside track because of our political climate and because of its history. And The Reader is the dark horse pick. Where do you go? It will most likely come down to Slumdog, Button, and Frost/Nixon, and you'd think Slumdog has a strong chance because of its international flavor and we are dealing with the foreign press.
However, it's hard for these people to overlook an epic, so Button probably has the edge.
But that's not the end of the Best Picture race. The Globes have two Best Pictures, which I think is fine if you're going to have two Best Directors and two Best Supporting Actresses. But they don't. Let's look at the musical/comedy nominees:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Here's the real problem: Most of these movies wouldn't compete if you only had one category. The only reason Mamma Mia! makes the cut is because it's a musical. And one of the best comedies of the year, Tropic Thunder, isn't nominated here, even though it picked up two acting nods. I'm heartened to see In Bruges, and it's the best movie in the running, but I'd have to think the three films in contention are Happy-Go-Lucky, Mamma Mia!, and Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which earned four nominations. Of those films, Happy-Go-Lucky has the most awards-friendly sheen, but Mamma Mia! was bigger around than the world than anything not named The Dark Knight. So you can't discount that, either. I sure would love an In Bruges upset, though.
It's a bit easier to thin the herd in the acting categories. Your front-runners in the dramatic categories are Meryl Streep/Anne Hathaway and Sean Penn. Leo DiCaprio is the only actor in his category with no chance of winning. Langella is really special, Pitt is the centerpiece of the big epic, and Mickey Rourke is the comeback kid. But Penn has been dominant in the awards season so far. My vote would be Langella, but I don't get a vote.
The comedy categories come down to Meryl Streep (again) and Sally Hawkins and, believe it or not, Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson. The voters seemed to really love In Bruges, or else both guys wouldn't get nominated. Will they split the vote? Yeah, but it's not like James Franco is going to win. Bardem is more a supporting role, and he's not terribly funny in it, anyway, and Dustin Hoffman fills like a seat filler in this category.
Penelope Cruz is the odds-on choice to win Best Supporting Actress, though Viola Davis probably had the best performance. The problem is that it's only one scene, and those kind of walk-ons rarely win trophies. And I don't think it's ever happened without the title "Dame" in front of your name. The Best Supporting Actor race should still be Heath Ledger's to lose, despite The Dark Knight not getting another nomination. In fact, that actually helps his chances. Now all of those fans have no alternative but to vote for Ledger, or the second biggest film ever goes home with nothing.
Best Director is a two-man race between David Fincher and Danny Boyle. I expect Fincher to win. The screenplay award, which unlike the acting awards actually condenses two categories into one by lumping original and adapted works together, has a third option, with Peter Morgan's Frost/Nixon joining Slumdog and Button.
Who got snubbed? Obviously, The Dark Knight and Milk were viewed as potential heavyweights, if not to win then certainly to place or show. But those films received as many nominations combined as did Kate Winslet. People who haven't seen Australia might feel that it got left out, but it really deserved nothing anyway.
Some might argue Gran Torino, but the problem is where to put it. It's as much a comedy as it is a drama, but it's pretty damn dramatic when it wants to be. I'm surprised that Eastwood didn't get a nomination for his acting, but the issue is still where he goes. There's more room for him in comedy, but I think it's more of a funny performance in a drama than anything else.
Beyond that, I can't really say things were completely shunned, although Dev Patel and Rosemarie DeWitt probably deserved to be in the supporting races for Slumdog and Rachel Getting Married.
I'd like to give the Globes credit for getting a few things right, as well. Tom Cruise was fantastic in Tropic Thunder. His nomination is a huge surprise, though, because the studio was so far behind Robert Downey Jr. (who also got and deserved his nomination for the same film). And while it could have been easy to embarrass themselves by throwing in a Katherine Heigl for 27 Dresses or Sarah Jessica Parker for Sex and the City, the Hollywood Foreign Press went out on a limb a little bit and picked Rebecca Hall, who I thought was the best thing about Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
What does all of this mean for the movie Super Bowl, the Academy Awards? Well, it will probably separate the wheat from the chaff, but because they're entirely different groups of voters, it won't necessarily be a blueprint for how the Oscars will look. I think there will be a lot of symmetry between the major categories in terms of nominees, but the Globes have been plenty goofy over the years (Dreamgirls beating Little Miss Sunshine, Borat, and Thank You for Smoking, The Hours winning Best Picture...), so it's hard to look at one and always see the other.
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