Thursday
11Dec2008
Fearless Forecast - The Weekend the 'Earth Stood Still'
Thursday, December 11, 2008 at 1:59PM
Don't put too much stock into last weekend. There's
always about a 50% drop from Thanksgiving to the weekend that follows it. That's
just one of those dark release dates when studios feel they can't make money,
like Labor Day. I don't pretend to understand it; that's just the way it is.
1 - The Day the Earth Stood Still ($46 million)
2 - Four Christmases ($11 million)
3 - Twilight ($7.5 million)
4 - Bolt ($6.8 million)
5 - Nothing Like the Holidays ($6.5 million)
There's a new Christmas movie, Nothing Like the Holidays, which would attract a large Latino audience if it were more available. Debuting on 1,500 screens can really only break your heart. You're not going to open in the top three (most likely), so the casual observer will watch the box office reports on an entertainment show and just think people aren't interested, because the casual observer probably doesn't realize or remember that The Day the Earth Stood Still opened in 1,900 more theaters.
In fact, a movie on 1,500 screens could perform quite well in those locations, just not well enough to overtake movies in twice as many theaters. So on week two, people who didn't see your semi-wide release will think it's a failure and won't check it out then, either.
That's an oversimplification, but it's not like Overture Films is going to ramp up to 2,500 or 3,000 screens from this point. It's only downhill from here. They might actually be better served to run in 800 theaters and then expand into more cities.
That's the kind of approach a lot of the awards-friendly movies are putting into action. We've seen it with Slumdog Millionaire and Milk already, and now Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and Gran Torino start building a little army one or two cities at a time. They won't finish near the top five, but their pre screen averages will be interesting to watch; last week, Frost/Nixon made $60,000 per screen, more than three times what any other movie could muster.
The Top Five:
1 - The Day the Earth Stood Still ($46 million)
2 - Four Christmases ($11 million)
3 - Twilight ($7.5 million)
4 - Bolt ($6.8 million)
5 - Nothing Like the Holidays ($6.5 million)
Last week's forecast was a bit of a mixed bag, in part because nobody went to see Punisher. We had it cracking the top five, taking some business away from Quantum of Solace. So we undervalued Four Christmases by a couple million, and Solace and Australia, as well, and gave an extra million to Twilight and Bolt. Not wildly different from the actual results, outside of the Punisher fiasco, but a noteworthy off-target shot, nonetheless.
Reader Comments (4)
America does love themselves some Keanu!
Are we going to ever see Constantine back in action?
I think Guillermo Del Toro could do a kickass Constantine sequel...
as if he has time!
Loved Constantine. I had heard sequel talk once upon a time, I think, but not in a while.