There's a lot of competition for your dollar over the extended holiday weekend. With travel, family, busy shopping days, college football bowl games and more, maybe this isn't the best weekend to release a film. After all, the all-time record for Christmas Day box office is under $11 million. So why is this supposed to be a huge time for movies?

There are really two reasons: 1) Family movies tend to do well on holidays, and this is the most family friendly holiday of the year. The box office numbers don't usually trend that way, at least not noticeably, on December 25th, but that's the reason we see so many movies aimed outside at male 18-34 demo.

2) It's the last week for movies to be released for consideration for the Academy Awards. So, even though the box office receipts may not be kind to some of the more downbeat films in theaters right now, this has traditionally been a big weekend for studios, at least in terms of quality.

But I think when we examine the final numbers on Sunday, we'll wonder what all the Christmas commotion was about...again. The top-trending movie heading into the holiday is Bedtime Stories, which should come close to $50 million over the four-day weekend. That's not all that good, especially when you think back to November and our back-to-back-to-back $60 million debuts. Those were all over the course of three days. And while the new Adam Sandler kid comedy will be a success, it's hardly a world beater.

The news is not as rosy for Marley & Me, the comedy-with-a-dramatic-kick-in-the-nuts starring Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston. We're looking at under $40 million over the Christmas weekend. Again, considering she's supposed to be the goddamn be all end all, that's not a good number. The movie will make money, but like Bedtime Stories, only modestly so. I don't see $150 million in its future.

Benjamin Button should do the best of all the new releases, if not right away. The prohibitive multiple Oscar nominee will open quite well, in my opinion, especially considering it's not the most entertaining movie in the world, is easily the new release that requires the most brainpower, and clocks in at just under three hours. Oscar buzz will help this last a long time in theaters, and a good jump this weekend could help it earn back its pretty sizable budget.

Valkyrie and The Spirit should round out the top five, neiher one of them making enough of a dent to follow their progress for more than a couple weeks.

The Top Five:
1 - Bedtime Stories ($48.5 million)
2 - Marley & Me ($34 million)
3 - Benjamin Button ($29 million)
4 - Valkyrie ($21 million)
5 - The Spirit ($15 million)