Fearless Forecast - 'Four Christmases,' Round Two

We said a few weeks ago that the real box office action this fall was in November, not December. Just look at the results: Three straight movies debuting with over $60 million, three straight movies setting a new mark for the fourth-highest opening of 2008. Madagascar had $63 million, and it now sits just shy of $150 million, then Quantum of Solace beat that debut by about four million, and its worldwide number is staggering - it'll hit half a billion this weekend, and might still get to $700 million overall. Twilight, of course, was the wild card, and we're looking at at least $150 million for that after a $70 million opening.And December kicks off with...Punisher: War Zone. Meh. There will be a little life in December with The Day the Earth Stood Still, although I don't think that's a $70 million debut, and looking ahead, maybe Seven Pounds and Yes Man will do pretty well, and I think Bedtime Stories will rule Christmas, but are we going to get three movies that combine for $500 million here in the U.S.? Nope.So this week is all about the retreads, because Punisher is not going to make much of an impact at all. In fact, I think the redheaded stepchild of the Marvel hit machine might make half of its total revenue this weekend before falling off the face of the Earth. (The reviews won't help, believe me.) Four Christmases bested projections last week, and I expect the good times to keep rolling for Reese and Vince. Twilight will still be a strong player, though it has lost significant steam. Bolt, the Disney 3-D flick that got overshadowed by teenage vampires two weeks ago, has played Twilight pretty even ever since, and it seems safe now to predict a total box office between $100 - $115 million here at home. It's certainly not one of the studio's big successes, but it may be enough to call it a minor hit.The only other new releases of note are Cadillac Records and Nobel Son, and neither one is popping up in wide enough release to throw the final standings for a loop.The Top Five: 1 - Four Christmases ($15.5 million)
2 - Twilight ($12 million)
3 - Bolt ($11 million)
4 - Quantum of Solace ($9 million)
5 - Punisher ($8 million)

Comments

[Will]

So is anyone ready to call Vince Vaughn a modern day Bing Crosby yet?

Someone get the man some singing lessons, and we're on to something here, methinks!