The Stiller Effect Strikes 'Semi-Pro', Ferrell Comedy Only Makes $5 Million Friday

Our own expectations put Will Ferrell's new sports comedy Semi-Pro in the $30 - $35 million range for the weekend. That's not some blind number; Blades of Glory did really well its first week, as did Talladega Nights before it. Plus, with no other new releases really gunning for number one, it seemed like a pretty sure thing given Ferrell's box office history.

But Friday's numbers are not encouraging, with Semi-Pro making just over $5 million. Of course, this is the first R-rated movie he's made since Old School, but I don't think that's it. I think it's The Stiller Effect. Last year, Ben Stiller's Heartbreak Kid was a stiff at the box office (it was also his first R-rated flick in a while) and I believe this malaise for comedians tells you that audiences are pretty much over their acts.

Semi-Pro will most likely still be number one - although Vantage Point isn't too far behind it, actually - but the final number may be $18 million, maybe less. I'd be surprised if this one breaks the $20 million barrier, meaning that Semi-Pro will come in at roughly 60% of its expected earnings. That ain't good.

Elsewhere in the top ten, The Other Boleyn Girl did very well on Friday, considering it's in a third of the theaters Semi-Pro is. The costume drama was predicted to be in the low end of the $5 - $8 million range, and now it'll probably do $8 - $10 million. For a movie in 1,000-odd theaters, that's a pretty good weekend.

Whereas Semi-Pro can't do much with its $20 million from this point, Boleyn can expand its release into more theaters in the coming weeks and build considerable momentum as the only "serious" movie of its kind available to audiences.