Thursday
May012008
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 10:43AM Fearless Forecast - 'Baby Mama' Wins Again (OK, Not Really)
The question isn't whether the first summer movie of 2008 will open at number one but rather how much will it make. And following closely behind that question is what the first weekend of summer means for the rest of the summer.
Obviously, Iron Man will have an impressive debut. Will it be enough to set the latest Marvel adventure on a course to being profitable? Well, that's a different kettle of fish. How about a reported $186 million price tag for Iron Man? Eleven movies made $200 million last year, and four of those made $300 million. Less than half of the $200 million club from 2007 were original films or first installments of franchises. Honestly, I don't see a dozen $200 million movies this summer.
So, in a way, Iron Man has a real uphill battle ahead of it. I think $150 million is probably easy money here - figure $80 million this weekend, $45 - $55 million next weekend... - but once you get above the $175 million range, I think you've got to question whether this one can pull it off in the face of Speed Racer, Prince Caspian and Indiana Jones.
In order to get within striking distance of $175 - $200 million, you'd have to think Iron Man needs to open with about $80 million. Since it's technically being released Thursday night, that little extra push should help summer's first movie come very, very close to that figure if everything shakes out the way it should. And even if it does, Iron Man still might not make money until the foreign receipts are tallied.
As for what this weekend means for the rest of the summer, I don't believe we'll see a repeat of 2007's record haul. There are a couple reasons for that: 1) We don't have as much built-in audience this year without as many sequels and threequels, hence our belief that you won't see a dozen $200 million movies this year, and 2) The economy is much worse than you're hearing it is, at least in the mind of the consumer. And without a steady diet of must-sees (there might be ten of those if we're lucky), summer could suffer.
If Iron Man goes nuts and somehow makes $100 million this weekend, then summer could be another monster. That would indicate that its ticket buyers extend beyond its likely opening weekend audience, meaning people are throwing disposable income at a movie they've heard a lot about but don't have any real connection to yet. And if that happens, then people will likely come out of the woodwork for future releases, too.
If, however, it falls somewhere in the low $70s, then I think we'll see a bunch of underperforming summer movies and maybe three or four big dogs, specifically Indiana Jones, Wall-E, Hancock, and The Dark Knight.
Here's the top five for this week:
1 - Iron Man ($84 million, Thursday through Sunday)
2 - Made of Honor ($10.5 million)
3 - Baby Mama ($8.5 million)
4 - Harold & Kumar ($7 million)
5 - Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($6 million)
Later today, we'll rate the big summer movies; which ones will be the best and which ones have the best chance to break the bank.
Obviously, Iron Man will have an impressive debut. Will it be enough to set the latest Marvel adventure on a course to being profitable? Well, that's a different kettle of fish. How about a reported $186 million price tag for Iron Man? Eleven movies made $200 million last year, and four of those made $300 million. Less than half of the $200 million club from 2007 were original films or first installments of franchises. Honestly, I don't see a dozen $200 million movies this summer.
So, in a way, Iron Man has a real uphill battle ahead of it. I think $150 million is probably easy money here - figure $80 million this weekend, $45 - $55 million next weekend... - but once you get above the $175 million range, I think you've got to question whether this one can pull it off in the face of Speed Racer, Prince Caspian and Indiana Jones.
In order to get within striking distance of $175 - $200 million, you'd have to think Iron Man needs to open with about $80 million. Since it's technically being released Thursday night, that little extra push should help summer's first movie come very, very close to that figure if everything shakes out the way it should. And even if it does, Iron Man still might not make money until the foreign receipts are tallied.
As for what this weekend means for the rest of the summer, I don't believe we'll see a repeat of 2007's record haul. There are a couple reasons for that: 1) We don't have as much built-in audience this year without as many sequels and threequels, hence our belief that you won't see a dozen $200 million movies this year, and 2) The economy is much worse than you're hearing it is, at least in the mind of the consumer. And without a steady diet of must-sees (there might be ten of those if we're lucky), summer could suffer.
If Iron Man goes nuts and somehow makes $100 million this weekend, then summer could be another monster. That would indicate that its ticket buyers extend beyond its likely opening weekend audience, meaning people are throwing disposable income at a movie they've heard a lot about but don't have any real connection to yet. And if that happens, then people will likely come out of the woodwork for future releases, too.
If, however, it falls somewhere in the low $70s, then I think we'll see a bunch of underperforming summer movies and maybe three or four big dogs, specifically Indiana Jones, Wall-E, Hancock, and The Dark Knight.
Here's the top five for this week:
1 - Iron Man ($84 million, Thursday through Sunday)
2 - Made of Honor ($10.5 million)
3 - Baby Mama ($8.5 million)
4 - Harold & Kumar ($7 million)
5 - Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($6 million)
Later today, we'll rate the big summer movies; which ones will be the best and which ones have the best chance to break the bank.
Reader Comments