'Indiana Jones' Tops Our Summer Box Office Predictions

I'm not sure 2008 will have the gawdy coffer-stuffing that made 2007 a record year. As an example, Entertainment Weekly's Top Ten only has five existing franchises. Last year, there were almost 15 summer sequels/remakes (not counting TV spinoffs), almost all of which wound up making the list of the year's top 20 box office hits.

This year, there are only nine, which means that a lot of unfamiliar titles will have to do big work. And I don't know if they can all do it.

I've recalculated my projections from my Seven of Summer article a couple weeks back. I was a little high in places - not like Paula Abdul, mind you - and I undervalued a couple more. But I've looked at the schedule again and I think this list is more on target.

Certainly, you'd look at the franchises first, and you have to look at the oldest one competiting this summer, which also happens to be one of the most revered film series ever.

1 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 23rd, $285 - $315 million)

If you look at the landscape surrounding Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, you'll notice that it could realistically be the number one movie for three weeks; in any case, we're looking at a solid four weeks in the top three and probably close to six weeks in the top five.


As is customary, June is not the strongest month of the year. May does very well and July does a little under that. And with Indy Jones going up against nothing in week one, Sex and the City in week two and Kung Fu Panda and You Don't Mess with the Zohan in week three, well, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Harrison Ford and company will eclipse $250 million in less than a month.

2 - Hancock (July 4th, $265 - $280 million)

Even though July doesn't see as many big releases right in a row the way May does, July 4th is always huge, and when he's got a summer movie, Will Smith owns July 4th. Some would say he pwns July 4th, but we don't associate with those people.


Now, why will it outgun everything but Indiana Jones this summer? Simple: Will Smith is the biggest star going. I Am Legend made over $250 million without nearly the hype this one will get. Big Willie Style also has a comfortable two weeks to make a big dent.

And when you consider that this opening weekend will easily be $100 million, and you notice that the only iron clad top ten movie left in the month is The Dark Knight two weeks later, it's not hard to do the math. By the time Dark Knight comes out, Hancock will already be at around $175 - $190 million, with at least three more weeks of viability to follow.

3 - The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16th, $240 - $260 million)

Despite not having the built-in anticipation for this film like the second Lord of the Rings movie, the first one was a smash and for family audiences, particularly those families that want there to be a Christian message in their entertainment, there's really not much else to see between mid-May and...uh...the next Veggie Tales movie.


So, even though it's going to open huge, probably in the $85 million range, this will have loads of second weekend and second month business, and plenty of repeat walk-ups, too.

4 - The Dark Knight (July 18th, $225 - $250 million)

Believe it or not, this one's kind of a box office wild card. Yes, it's been the biggest viral thing since the influenza outbreak of 1919, but viral has backfired before. More than it's worked, actually.


And as good as the first one was, it barely made $200 million. I think The Dark Knight will do better, but Heath Ledger was not exactly instant box office. The good news here is that, like Hancock, it should benefit from having the final six weeks of summer as a form of mop-up duty. It will get what's left, in other words.

5 - Wall-E (June 27th, $200 - $220 million)

I think I'm actually being a little generous here; something tells me Wall-E will not be a Pixar sized hit. It's experimental, it's different, it doesn't have happy cars or smiling rats...


I'm not saying it will be bad, because I think it might be brilliant. I'm just saying it might be too smart for the room. And that's not where Pixar lives, generally speaking. However, just like Caspian will make more money than it should because nothing else will appeal to its audience for a while, Wall-E will be pretty much unopposed until Space Chimps opens nearly a month later, and it's not like that's going to be huge.

6 - Iron Man (May 2nd, $185 - $210 million)

The early bird gets the worm, they say, and Iron Man will probably need it. As big as this one will be, history has not been overly kind to the superhero movies not named Spider-Man, Batman, X-Men or Superman. Go ask Fantastic Four and Hulk. And with X-Men, which opened in summer 2000, it didn't even come near $200 million although the second and third films were huge. Advantage: Franchises.


Will it do better than the Fantastic Four movies? Yeah. But are we talking a $250 million flick here? No. It will very likely be out of gas on Memorial Day weekend, and I can't see it hitting beyond $200 million by that point.

7 - Kung Fu Panda (June 6th, $165 - $190 million)

It will get a lot of cash early, and for whatever reason, an animated movie doesn't even have to look good or funny or interesting to be a big producer. It has the advantage of being the first 'toon of the season, and it's odd that we have to wait a month to get to one, but having said that, it will be strangled by Wall-E later in June because audiences love them some Pixar.


But like last year's Shrek the Third, when the receipts are counted, we'll all be asking, "How in the hell did Kung Fu Panda make so damn much money?"

8 - The Incredible Hulk (June 13th, $160 - $180 million)

Hulk will bring in a lot of money in week one. If it blows, that'll probably be it - $70 million and then a slow trickle towards $125 million. If it's good, and we'll hold out hope that it is (it certainly can be), then it has a healthy three weeks to prosper.


I don't think we're looking at a $100 million opener here, but if it does hit $70, which is not out of the question, and it does business comparable to what movies that please their audiences do at this time of year, then it could be a sort of surprise for some people.

9 - The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor ($140 - $155 million)

This can't possibly be good, right? Doesn't matter. It's a summer sequel. It gets a weekend to itself and doesn't have much competition the following week.


I shudder to think that this will make $50 million in its debut, but hell, Rush Hour 3 did that, so anything's possible. But when I mentioned mop-up duty for The Dark Knight earlier, this is what I meant. Almost by default, a big movie generates some bucks, but this is not a must-see but more of a let's-see, so while it's out a lot of older movies will be given a new lease on life.

10- The X-Files: I Want to Believe ($120 - $135 million)

I've noticed a steadily growing anticipation for this movie, and when you think about it, this really is a summer for serious nerds: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Hulk, Wanted, and to a lesser extent, Indiana Jones. Well friend, there's not much nerdier than a fixation on Gillian Anderson.


There are a couple movies this summer that have a slow burn factor, and I think this one heads that pack. You don't have to be a genius to realize that it will do well out of the gate, but I have a sneaking suspsicion strong reviews, nostalgia, and the ever-underestimated power of geeks will help this movie tremendously.