Box Office - 'Speed Racer' Stalls

Speed Racer, which earlier in the week was reported to be projecting soft, is playing even softer. Based on Friday's estimates from Box Office Mojo, the second big summer movie won't finish in first place this weekend...or second place. The new Wachowski Brothers adaptation of the cult cartoon classic opened the weekend in third place, nowhere near Iron Man and a full million bucks behind What Happens in Vegas. You can't predict the future based on one day, certainly (hell, even Spider-Man 3 underperformed its own projections after shattering previous records on opening day), but it does not look good for the $100 million flick. Failing to even hit $6 million in ticket sales on Friday, Speed Racer will most likely finish the weekend around $20 million. A good rule of thumb for figuring total box office for a film in wide release is to look at the opening weekend as about a third of total ticket sales. So, for Speed Racer, even a liberal estimate at this point would have it topping off at $70-$75 million. Summer flops do even worse in some cases because of the competition, so if the film can get over the $50 million hump at this point, that might be an achievement. In any case, there's no way the movie will make money without the help of foreign markets and DVD sales. Gulp.

As for Iron Man, its somewhat improbable march toward history continues; Friday night's box office put the film in position to exceed $170 million in just ten days. Its second Friday compares very favorably to Spider-Man 3's, with a $15 million haul vs. $17 million for the webslinger.

Now the real question for Iron Man is what happens to it in the next two weeks, with Prince Caspian and Indiana Jones, two films predicted in most circles to finish in the top five at the summer box office. Well, it looks for all the world like Iron Man will hit $200 million plus by the end of next weekend, with another $30 - $40 million likely before Memorial Day. $300 million is probably not in the cards, but it'll get a lot closer to it than a lot of people thought.

Comments

[JD Rucker]

I hate to say "I told you so" to anyone expecting otherwise, but I really did pick this one.

Of all the summer "Blockbusters" this year, Speed Racer seemed to be completely out of place on the list. It looks and feels like a kids' movie that doesn't quite appeal to kids, a CGI movie that lacks the cool to appeal with 20 somethings and teens, and very little other than nostalgia factor to appeal to anyone older than that.

Now that I'm done patting myself on the back, it should be noted that I also predicted that Iron Man would be poorly made and wouldn't do well at the box office. One out of two ain't bad.