Thursday
May012008
Thursday, May 1, 2008 at 9:56PM So What Will Be the Best Summer Movie?
We've chronicled the ones you can't miss - those mega-blockbusters everyone will be talking about - and we've given our box office forecast for the summer. Now, based on a suggestion by my good friend and Big Picture reader, Christian, let's see what summer movie should be the best of the bunch.
Last year, the best summer movie was The Bourne Ultimatum. I don't think there's any questioning that. If you do question it, please move along. It wasn't among the top five in terms of box office, true, but it's probably the only summer movie from 2007 to make an embarrassing amount of money largely on the basis that it just flat kicked ass.
So we'll go through some candidates - not mentioning those that have too many negatives - and list the pros and cons, and hopefully by the end, we'll all agree on summer's best movie.
Before we start, let's set some ground rules. A summer movie is a bit like pornography if I may borrow a rule of thumb employed by the Supreme Court: I know it when I see it. Two years ago, Little Miss Sunshine was the best movie released between May and September, but it's not a summer movie. Secondly, check your box office expectations at the door. Don't care.
Our criteria are simple: What's the possible upside and what's the possible downside? Some movies look good from a distance but when you start to weigh everything you realize they're not a sure thing, while other movies may not have nearly the risk either way.
And we've eliminated Speed Racer, Prince Caspian, The Happening, Get Smart, Journey to the Center of the Earth, X-Files, The Mummy, Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder from the discussion. Several others don't even warrant being mentioned. These titles either have too low a ceiling or too many possible negatives going in.
Let's do it in chronological order:
1 - Iron Man
The good: Downey, great source material, ridiculous budget, Jeff Bridges, Gwyneth Paltrow
The bad: Jon Favreau has never directed anything like this, there's no earth-shattering villain
The chemistry: Well, look, I've been aching for this for a long time. I think Downey's perfect for Tony Stark and Iron Man is really one of Marvel's better creations. But those two negatives are huge. Superhero movies rely so much on their villains and Iron Man just doesn't have a Joker or a Green Goblin or a Magneto. As for Favreau, Zathura is the closest he's ever come to a project like this. $200 million action movies take a certain something. Does he have it? It's a question worth asking.
2 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The good: Indiana Jones, Spielberg directing a popcorn movie, Cate Blanchett
The bad: Forcing a kid into the equation, George Lucas is involved at some level, the series simply doesn't need a fourth movie
The chemistry: I highly doubt Indiana Jones will be a trainwreck but there's no way to mask the obvious faults. We've talked about the Scrappy Doo Syndrome before (introducing a kid late in the game tells you there's nothing left for the main character to do, and if there's nothing left for the main character to do, why bother continuing to tell his story?), and I think even diehard Indy fans have to realize that the series was already wrapped up pretty neatly 19 years ago. This just looks for all the world like an attempt to make money and nothing else.
3 - The Incredible Hulk
The good: Edward Norton wearing two hats, the possible power of redemption, Hulk is still a terrific tragic hero
The bad: Ooh, the CGI blows, Liv Tyler, Louis Leterrier made the Transporter movies
The chemistry: You'd like to think Edward Norton could salvage this. If he can't, we'll never see another Hulk movie. But you know, not every superhero works in the two-hour time frame and you could argue that Hulk is such a tragic figure that it takes longer to move through his story and you could combine that theory with the outright silly looking CGI and Hulk would raise a lot of red flags. Honestly, Lou Ferrigno was more believable.
I have zero confidence in the director and I'm afraid that because of Hulk's duality, this movie - like the first one - will be pulled into a circus-like atmosphere of action and a Shakespearean arena of drama because, again, you've got to try to fit it all into such a short period of time.
4 - Wall-E
The good: Pixar's pedigree, the return of Andrew Stanton, a deeper story than we're used to
The bad: 15 full minutes without dialogue? Really?
The chemistry: Pixar makes incredibly good movies most of the time, and I don't want to limit that just to animated flicks. These guys almost always tell great stories and do so in inventive ways. Wall-E has a big risk component, but you have to believe as meticulously as Pixar and director Andrew Stanton work that they wouldn't put themselves in a position to fail so gloriously. But it's true, I guess; there is not nearly as much traditional dialogue as we're used to. Could be a big mistake.
But this has a lot more upside than downside.
5 - Wanted
The good: Excellent source material, an inventive action director on the rise, a star on the rise, Angelina with a gun, Morgan Freeman
The bad: Is it too mixed a bag of influences?
The chemistry: The absolute darkhorse of the season, it might be that flick we think back on at the end of summer and say, "Why couldn't more movies have been like that?"
I've seen the trailers, the posters, I've even read some of the comic, and if you can combine director Timur Bekmambetov's Night Watch with what's been praised as "Watchmen for supervillains," I think that's an excellent place to start. Angelina Jolie is the best action heroine on the planet. It looks deeply cool.
Plus, this was not originally supposed to be a summer movie. Can you remember the last time a movie jumped into June instead of out of it?
6 - Hancock
The good: Will Smith, a different spin on the superhero genre, Jason Bateman
The bad: Is director Peter Berg cut out for this?
The chemistry: I love the idea and the casting in Hancock, which we will not grade down because of its name. The only real drawback is a pretty big one, though. Does Peter Berg (The Kingdom, Friday Night Lights) really know his way around a budget this size and expectations this big?
One thing a big budget buys is more effects, and if there's a black mark on the trailer it's that the effects appear to dominate every scene they're in. Not a major beef yet, but we haven't seen two hours of it, either.
7 - Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The good: del Toro, Ron Perlman, that wicked sense of humor
The bad: The sophomore slump?, can it afford to get any more out there?
The chemistry: Early on, I thought this would be one of the keepers of the season, and I'm still not budging. I don't know that it will be the best summer movie, but I think it has tremendous potential. My only real fault here is I don't know how good it can be. I think it will probably hit that mark, whatever it is, because there aren't a lot of negatives right now, but I just don't know how transcendent the positives are.
8 - The Dark Knight
The good: Ledger, a lot of what's old
The bad: Too many characters doom every superhero series eventually, can it possibly live up to the hype?
The chemistry: If one movie can live up to the hype, it's The Dark Knight. But, if we're being honest, that's an awful lot of hype. Easily displaying the most worthwhile cast of the summer, it returns every major component from Batman Begins and adds what looks like an otherworldly performance by Heath Ledger as the greatest comic book villain ever. So there's that.
But, look at the third and fourth Superman movies, look at the Schumacher Batman era, look at Spidey-3 and X-Men: The Last Stand: The last thing you want is too many characters, and The Dark Knight has an awful lot of principals.
I'm not bracing for the worst - far from it - but this could suffer from not being enough about Batman and the Joker. You could always save Harvey Dent for later. Unless he's not big enough for his own movie. And if thats's the case, why's he in the Joker's?
The Most Potential Upside:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk
Indiana Jones
Hellboy II
Hancock
The Least Potential Downside:
Wanted
Wall-E
Hellboy II
Hancock
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Indiana Jones
The Incredible Hulk
The Best "Summer" Movies of the Summer:
Wanted
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II
Iron Man
Hancock
Indiana Jones
The Incredible Hulk
Sure, we could be wrong. Probably will be in some cases because this isn't a science and we're trying to make it one. But apply the same rules to 2007 and you'll see that you would've come out with Bourne on top using the same logic. Of course, if Wanted is an abject failure, I'll look incredibly foolish...
Last year, the best summer movie was The Bourne Ultimatum. I don't think there's any questioning that. If you do question it, please move along. It wasn't among the top five in terms of box office, true, but it's probably the only summer movie from 2007 to make an embarrassing amount of money largely on the basis that it just flat kicked ass.
So we'll go through some candidates - not mentioning those that have too many negatives - and list the pros and cons, and hopefully by the end, we'll all agree on summer's best movie.
Before we start, let's set some ground rules. A summer movie is a bit like pornography if I may borrow a rule of thumb employed by the Supreme Court: I know it when I see it. Two years ago, Little Miss Sunshine was the best movie released between May and September, but it's not a summer movie. Secondly, check your box office expectations at the door. Don't care.
Our criteria are simple: What's the possible upside and what's the possible downside? Some movies look good from a distance but when you start to weigh everything you realize they're not a sure thing, while other movies may not have nearly the risk either way.
And we've eliminated Speed Racer, Prince Caspian, The Happening, Get Smart, Journey to the Center of the Earth, X-Files, The Mummy, Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder from the discussion. Several others don't even warrant being mentioned. These titles either have too low a ceiling or too many possible negatives going in.
Let's do it in chronological order:
1 - Iron Man
The good: Downey, great source material, ridiculous budget, Jeff Bridges, Gwyneth Paltrow
The bad: Jon Favreau has never directed anything like this, there's no earth-shattering villain
The chemistry: Well, look, I've been aching for this for a long time. I think Downey's perfect for Tony Stark and Iron Man is really one of Marvel's better creations. But those two negatives are huge. Superhero movies rely so much on their villains and Iron Man just doesn't have a Joker or a Green Goblin or a Magneto. As for Favreau, Zathura is the closest he's ever come to a project like this. $200 million action movies take a certain something. Does he have it? It's a question worth asking.
2 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The good: Indiana Jones, Spielberg directing a popcorn movie, Cate Blanchett
The bad: Forcing a kid into the equation, George Lucas is involved at some level, the series simply doesn't need a fourth movie
The chemistry: I highly doubt Indiana Jones will be a trainwreck but there's no way to mask the obvious faults. We've talked about the Scrappy Doo Syndrome before (introducing a kid late in the game tells you there's nothing left for the main character to do, and if there's nothing left for the main character to do, why bother continuing to tell his story?), and I think even diehard Indy fans have to realize that the series was already wrapped up pretty neatly 19 years ago. This just looks for all the world like an attempt to make money and nothing else.
3 - The Incredible Hulk
The good: Edward Norton wearing two hats, the possible power of redemption, Hulk is still a terrific tragic hero
The bad: Ooh, the CGI blows, Liv Tyler, Louis Leterrier made the Transporter movies
The chemistry: You'd like to think Edward Norton could salvage this. If he can't, we'll never see another Hulk movie. But you know, not every superhero works in the two-hour time frame and you could argue that Hulk is such a tragic figure that it takes longer to move through his story and you could combine that theory with the outright silly looking CGI and Hulk would raise a lot of red flags. Honestly, Lou Ferrigno was more believable.
I have zero confidence in the director and I'm afraid that because of Hulk's duality, this movie - like the first one - will be pulled into a circus-like atmosphere of action and a Shakespearean arena of drama because, again, you've got to try to fit it all into such a short period of time.
4 - Wall-E
The good: Pixar's pedigree, the return of Andrew Stanton, a deeper story than we're used to
The bad: 15 full minutes without dialogue? Really?
The chemistry: Pixar makes incredibly good movies most of the time, and I don't want to limit that just to animated flicks. These guys almost always tell great stories and do so in inventive ways. Wall-E has a big risk component, but you have to believe as meticulously as Pixar and director Andrew Stanton work that they wouldn't put themselves in a position to fail so gloriously. But it's true, I guess; there is not nearly as much traditional dialogue as we're used to. Could be a big mistake.
But this has a lot more upside than downside.
5 - Wanted
The good: Excellent source material, an inventive action director on the rise, a star on the rise, Angelina with a gun, Morgan Freeman
The bad: Is it too mixed a bag of influences?
The chemistry: The absolute darkhorse of the season, it might be that flick we think back on at the end of summer and say, "Why couldn't more movies have been like that?"
I've seen the trailers, the posters, I've even read some of the comic, and if you can combine director Timur Bekmambetov's Night Watch with what's been praised as "Watchmen for supervillains," I think that's an excellent place to start. Angelina Jolie is the best action heroine on the planet. It looks deeply cool.
Plus, this was not originally supposed to be a summer movie. Can you remember the last time a movie jumped into June instead of out of it?
6 - Hancock
The good: Will Smith, a different spin on the superhero genre, Jason Bateman
The bad: Is director Peter Berg cut out for this?
The chemistry: I love the idea and the casting in Hancock, which we will not grade down because of its name. The only real drawback is a pretty big one, though. Does Peter Berg (The Kingdom, Friday Night Lights) really know his way around a budget this size and expectations this big?
One thing a big budget buys is more effects, and if there's a black mark on the trailer it's that the effects appear to dominate every scene they're in. Not a major beef yet, but we haven't seen two hours of it, either.
7 - Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The good: del Toro, Ron Perlman, that wicked sense of humor
The bad: The sophomore slump?, can it afford to get any more out there?
The chemistry: Early on, I thought this would be one of the keepers of the season, and I'm still not budging. I don't know that it will be the best summer movie, but I think it has tremendous potential. My only real fault here is I don't know how good it can be. I think it will probably hit that mark, whatever it is, because there aren't a lot of negatives right now, but I just don't know how transcendent the positives are.
8 - The Dark Knight
The good: Ledger, a lot of what's old
The bad: Too many characters doom every superhero series eventually, can it possibly live up to the hype?
The chemistry: If one movie can live up to the hype, it's The Dark Knight. But, if we're being honest, that's an awful lot of hype. Easily displaying the most worthwhile cast of the summer, it returns every major component from Batman Begins and adds what looks like an otherworldly performance by Heath Ledger as the greatest comic book villain ever. So there's that.
But, look at the third and fourth Superman movies, look at the Schumacher Batman era, look at Spidey-3 and X-Men: The Last Stand: The last thing you want is too many characters, and The Dark Knight has an awful lot of principals.
I'm not bracing for the worst - far from it - but this could suffer from not being enough about Batman and the Joker. You could always save Harvey Dent for later. Unless he's not big enough for his own movie. And if thats's the case, why's he in the Joker's?
The Most Potential Upside:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk
Indiana Jones
Hellboy II
Hancock
The Least Potential Downside:
Wanted
Wall-E
Hellboy II
Hancock
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Indiana Jones
The Incredible Hulk
The Best "Summer" Movies of the Summer:
Wanted
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II
Iron Man
Hancock
Indiana Jones
The Incredible Hulk
Sure, we could be wrong. Probably will be in some cases because this isn't a science and we're trying to make it one. But apply the same rules to 2007 and you'll see that you would've come out with Bourne on top using the same logic. Of course, if Wanted is an abject failure, I'll look incredibly foolish...
Reader Comments (1)
7. Wanted: The first time I saw the trailer, I inadvertently yelled "Bullshit!" in a crowded family theater. I dug the Night Watch flicks, but shouldn't a movie at least try to make sense?
6. Kung Fu Panda: I know it's a kid's movie, but which of these isn't? Moriarty and others at AICN are surprisingly high on it.
5. Iron Man: You've seen it; I haven't. Love the promos, though, and I dig me some Favreau. I think he has made a movie like this--the glossy, enjoyable Zathura.
4. Hellboy II: I'm basing this ranking solely on loving Del Toro and the original Hellboy.
3. Indiana Jones: I think this will be good because it has to be good. There were too many screenplays by good writers rejected to make a dud just for the sake of superfluous lucre. Granted, that didn't prevent bad Star Wars prequels from being made, but I have more faith in Spielberg than in Lucas. Plus I've read some of those rejected screenplays, and I've noticed some of the more interesting set pieces therein dragged out of mothballs for Crystal Skull.
2. Wall-E: Nobody makes funnier physical comedies than Pixar, and arguably, no one makes better movies time after time. The worst movie on their resume is A Bug's Life, and even that was pretty good.
1. The Dark Knight: The first reel looked like a '70s Lumet film. I bet none of the reels look like a '90s Schumacher film. I think Batman Begins would have made an additional $100 million if people hadn't thought of it as "Batman V." They caught the movie on DVD, and now they know better. This will certainly be a huge hit, but I also think it's trying so hard it'll be a great movie (if any comic movie could, in fact, be called great). Put another way, I think it'll be great at being an exciting and not-too-stupid comic book movie.
If I've ranked any of these too highly, though, I'm betting it'll be Indy Jones. There's a nagging, cynical part of me that still believes that character should have stayed in the sunset into which he rode off nineteen years ago.