Saturday
24May2008
Like Harrison Ford's Food, Day Two Box Office for 'Indy' a Little Soft
Saturday, May 24, 2008 at 1:35PM
Yesterday, we reported on the opening day box office
for
Indiana Jones.
The crux of it: Impressive. Now Friday's numbers are in and they're, well, not
as impressive...if
$31 million in one day can truly be underwhelming.
Why doesn't that number knock us over? Primarily because
it drastically lowers the chances that Indy will flirt with $150 million in its
first five days, where it should earn just under half of its entire haul. Now
standing at $56 million (we were thinking about $63 million through two days),
Kingdom of the Crystal Skull might flirt with $140 million, but that's
probably about it, barring a significant second wind.
Using the Iron Man assumption that Saturday's box office
won't be significantly higher for Indy - say 10% for the sake of the math -
we're only talking about $34 million and change today. Iron Man then
lost 30% of its
audience from Saturday to Sunday, which is a little high, actually. We won't go
to that extreme because Indiana Jones has a three-day weekend to work with, meaning
stronger Sunday night crowds. So let's look at last Memorial Day for that
comparison.
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End lost 10% on Sunday and a Sunday-like 27.5% on
Monday. Applying those standards here, we're looking at another $31 million on
Sunday and $22.5 million on Monday.
That's a lot of numbers to throw at you, I realize, but
now you know how we're arriving at a revised five-day estimate of $143.5
million. That's an even split between Shrek the Third and Pirates last year, and
$25 million below the five-day record set by Spider-Man 3.
Will Indy hit $300 million in the U.S.? Probably, but
it'll need some solid activity over the next couple of weeks before we're sure.
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