Fearless Forecast - 'Speed Racer' Second at the Checkered Flag

When the dust clears this weekend, look for Iron Man to repeat its rather unpredictable performance as the number one movie in the country. Over the past week, I've received plenty of e-mails asking why I hate Iron Man so much. I don't hate Iron Man; I just don't think it's Spider-Man/Batman/Batman Begins quality. It's good, but I don't know if it's on the Mt. Rushmore of superhero movies.

And when it comes to analyzing its box office, I truly didn't think it would be as big as it was. There are really no indicators - outside of hype - to think it would make $100 million. It trounced the numbers put up by the Fantastic Four movies, and those characters are probably a touch more recognizable to mainstream crowds than Iron Man. Robert Downey is not exactly a box office draw, and Jon Favreau as a director doesn't exactly have Michael Bay's Midas touch. So, while I thought it would do very well, I just didn't think it would come close to $275 - $300 million overall, which it now might do.

As for this weekend, it's rare that a new summer movie fails to sink its teeth into an audience, but apparently that's the case for Speed Racer. As we reported earlier in the week, it's not tracking well at all, meaning people might stay away. At the very least, it won't break $100 million this weekend.

Then again, it doesn't need to. Everything's relative, they say, and Speed Racer cost half of what Iron Man did, so you could make a case that if it does half as well as Iron Man at the box office, it'll be a hit. You'd be right...except for your assumption that it will do half as well as Iron Man.

There's also the romantic comedy What Happens in Vegas, which ought to do well, or at least well enough. Not a player in the long haul, but with modest expectations, a top three finish could be quite nice for the Diaz-Kutcher project, depending on the final numbers.

The Top Five:

1 - Iron Man ($48 million)
2 - Speed Racer ($33 million)
3 - What Happens in Vegas ($19 million)
4 - Made of Honor ($7.2 million)
5 - Baby Mama ($5.5 million)