Fearless Forecast - 'Hulk' Smash Everything

We've been here before. Five years ago next weekend, Ang Lee's Hulk hit theaters in a big way. The film made $62 million in its debut (equivalent to about $70 million today, based on the number of theaters). Of course, the film only managed $70 million during the rest of its run in the United States, which is a terrible way to finish. A lot of people don't what to expect from The Incredible Hulk: Is it too soon? Aren't we really just waiting for The Dark Knight? Won't this version suck, too? The argument has been made that a few recent summer movies are critic-proof, with Indiana Jones, Sex and the City, and You Don't Mess With the Zohan surviving middling reviews to put up big box office. In my opinion, this weekend is just the opposite. For the first time in a while, I think critical reactions to The Incredible Hulk and Night Shyamalan's The Happening will have a pretty big impact on their debuts. Neither film exactly has audiences standing in line, so I believe if people hear that Hulk is good (which they will), more people will be curious to see it, just as if they hear The Happening is awful (which they will), they might stay away. I'm a little surprised by some of the projections I've seen for both movies, but maybe that's because I'm subscribing to the theory that Friday reviews and word-of-mouth will influence the totals for them. I think The Incredible Hulk will do slightly better than expectations - and I'll give part of the credit to Marvel revealing the Tony Stark/Iron Man cameo in its latest commercial - while I can't pretend to think a $25 million opening for The Happening makes any sense at all. Hell, if Speed Racer couldn't do it... Plus, The Happening is an R-rated film, and those don't usually drum up huge business in the summer, especially not against PG-13 fare that a lot more people are interested in seeing. Let's not undersell the fact that Night Shyamalan has basically stolen $20 from every moviegoer who paid to see both The Village and Lady in the Water. They probably won't be too stoked to throw more money away on a movie getting lousy reviews. Here's our Top Five: 1 - The Incredible Hulk - $58 million 2 - Kung Fu Panda - $34 million 3 - You Don't Mess With the Zohan - $24 million 4 - The Happening - $19 million 5 - Indiana Jones - $11 million