Saturday
28Jun2008
Box Office - 'Wanted' Takes Aim at 'Wall-E' on Friday
Saturday, June 28, 2008 at 10:57AM
There are some perfectly good reasons why
Wall-E should have its way with
Wanted this weekend at the box office, and yet,
if Friday's any indication, they're pretty much head-to-head. Wall-E, the
latest Pixar release, appears headed for a $70 million weekend, according to
Box
Office Mojo, and that's more or less what everyone predicted. Wanted,
however, looks like it could wind up in the mid-50s, earning significantly more
money than anyone thought.
So how does that equal an even race? Well, for starters,
Wanted is rated R, which hinders its ability to really cash in. Only
eight 17-and-over films have ever made $200 million or more, and only one of
those, The Passion of the Christ, cleared $300. Wall-E has a much
easier road to cash because it's G-rated. It should also have a distinct
advantage because Pixar and Disney have spent nearly 15 years carving out their
niche and people know what they're getting every time. Wanted has to rely
on
Angelina Jolie and action scenes in the trailer
for its ticket sales.
The third key reason Wall-E should and will come
out on top this weekend is the number of screens it's playing on. The Pixar
flick is in 800 more locations than Wanted, nearing 4,000 theaters. So,
looking at all of those factors, you'd think Wall-E would be way out in
front. But Wanted is winning the battle for per-screen-average, which
basically means each showing of the assassin flick is closer to being a
sell-out. Wall-E has made $23 million so far, but Wanted, which
was estimated to earn between $35 and $40 million this weekend, has already
scraped up $19 million.
Over the course of the weekend, you would expect
Wall-E to build a bigger margin because it's family friendly and because
it's simply in too many theaters for Wanted to overtake it. Still, what
appeared to be a $70/$35 debut in the best weekend of summer releases will now
be a $70/$50 or maybe even a $65/$55. And for Universal, who took a real chance
moving Wanted from the spring release schedule into the heart of summer,
their confidence in the film has already paid off; if the rest of the weekend
plays out like an average weekend for an action movie, we could be looking at a
$160 - $180 million payday before the international receipts are counted. Not
too shabby.
Elsewhere, there's a slim chance
Indiana Jones will become the year's second
$300 million movie this weekend, and there's an equally good chance that
The Love Guru will make it to $24 million.
Congratulations all around!
Colin Boyd | Permalink | in Angelina Jolie, Box Office, Pixar, Summer Movies, Wall-E, Wanted | Print Article | Email Article | 3 Comments | Share Article
Reader Comments (3)
Not sure what your point is. Is there some virtue in Wanted beating WALL-E at the box office? Why not just focus on the fact that Wanted is doing better than expected?
Regardless, according to Box Office Mojo, only seven G-rated films have taken in over $200 million in the U.S. (two of those breaking $300 million). Like an R-rated film, it takes a special G-rated film to reach beyond its core audience and have mass appeal. Since all seven have come from Pixar and Disney, it's true that WALL-E arrives with high expectations. But it will be a few weeks before we know if either of these films has what it takes to go the distance.
The virtue is that Wanted is doing better than expected. Nobody believes it will beat Wall-E outright, but if you look at the forecasts, both before this summer and this weekend, Wanted was nearly an afterthought. But beating a Pixar movie on a per-screen average is impressive for a wide release like Wanted.
Also, it's true that there have been a handful of G-rated movies to clear $200 million, but how many rated G movies have there been in the $200 - $300 million era compared to rated R movies? Half? A third? A quarter?
I don't think you know what "virtue" is. Scary thought. It certainly doesn't mean "a commercial enterprise making more money than expected." As for G-rated movies, few are made because fewer are successful. It is Pixar's (and at one time, Disney's) genius to be able to entertain people of all ages and sensibilities consistently in a way that no one else has been able to pull off.