Fearless Forecast - Raising Some 'Hell' at the Box Office

I'm not sure, if I had a movie, I'd want it to come out right in between a Will Smith movie and The Dark Knight. Call me crazy. But three big name films are gunning for your wallets this weekend, and only one of them will have any significant impact. Surprisingly, it's not the 3-D flick or the Eddie Murphy comedy. Instead, look for Hellboy II: The Golden Army to narrowly defeat Hancock this weekend. The first Hellboy made $23 million in its debut four years back, and I don't think the new one will double that total, but the overall box office take for the sequel should be substantially higher. There's little doubt that the first film has gained fans over the years and the higher profile of director Guillermo del Toro is bound to bring in some bucks. As for the other new releases, it will not be a big weekend for Journey to the Center of the Earth, but with a reported $45 million budget (how?), it doesn't really need much. I agree with the Village Voice that it's more a demo reel for the 3-D than it is an actual story, but the appeal of the live action 3-D should draw in families. Meet Dave, on the other hand, won't draw too many people at all. In fact, it seems destined to lose money, with its $100 million budget and lack of effective marketing. Combine that with the fact that people don't really like Eddie Murphy right now, he's not doing a lot of interviews to promote it, and the general impression that the trailers don't make this look funny, and you have a swirling failure in 3,000 theaters. That brings us to the movies still in theaters. The only ones with significant punch left are Wall-E and Hancock, which has already made $204 million around the world in a week. We say that the Fourth of July is Will Smith's weekend, and it's true: Just looking at domestic grosses, his seven Fourth of July films have generated over $620 million...in their opening weeks! The Top Five 1 - Hellboy II ($36 million) 2 - Hancock ($32 million) 3 - Wall-E ($20 million) 4 - Journey to the Center of the Earth ($18 million) 5 - Meet Dave ($12 million)

Comments

[Will]

I'm thinking Hellboy does at least 50 million. It's getting good reviews, and will benefit from the geeks (like me) who are champing at the bit for Dark Knight. Remember, the first Hellboy was a late Winter release of an unknown comic hero that was made by an unknown director.

Things have changed since then.

[Get The Big Picture]

It's not opening in enough theaters to generate that kind of bread. I say $37 million, tops.

[JMK]

I really hate to say this, seeing that I want Meet Dave to crash and burn ala Love Guru, but I think Eddie Murphy's latest waste of his once-vast potential will get around 20 mil, perhaps even beating out Journey to the Center of the Earth...as hard as it is for us to rationalize, Lazy Eddie still has a following when it comes to "family" movies...

[David]

Maybe Hellboy and Hancock will split the comic book crowd and the only adult film in the bunch will rise again to No. 1. That film, of course, is Wall-E. Five years from now, people will scratch their heads at the mention of any other film in this list.

[Will]

This really is a tough weekend to predict because the same Bible-belters who probably will avoid Hellboy love Brendan Fraser in all his wholesome goodness. Journey could be a real surprise, especially considering it is all wrapped up in gimmick-y 3-D!

[Old Man]

Hancock? More like Han-CROCK!

[Joey]

I agree with the statements on here, for the msot part. It won't be a big weekend. THat's next week.

[JMK]

This just in...Meet Dave TANKS, opening at #7! I was WRONG...hooray! :P