Box Office - 'Hellboy' Rules Friday, Nobody Wants to 'Meet Dave'

There's good news all around with the Friday box office estimates. We'll begin at the top and work our way down. It appears that Hellboy II: The Golden Army may be headed towards the $37 - $40 million range this weekend, which a near $14 million Friday, according to Box Office Mojo. That should mean a $100 million run for the Hellboy sequel, maybe upwards of $120 - $130 million depending on how it plays in the next couple of weeks. This number may be a touch higher than projections, although the Saturday numbers will tell us a lot not just about the weekend in particular but well this might play down the line. Hancock finished in second place on Friday, and should wind up with another $30 million or so after its second weekend, proving Will Smith's new movie isn't just critic proof, but to a large extent, it's audience proof, too. Average to below average reviews may have hurt it a little bit, but Hancock will still be a $225 million movie. Journey to the Center of the Earth, which is a slightly better show than it lets on, did slightly better on Friday than I would've thought. With nearly $7 million in ticket sales, this film should reach $20 million for the weekend, not bad when you consider the 3-D feature only cost $45 million. Wall-E, Wanted, and Get Smart continue to do nice business. If I had to forecast U.S. totals based on what we've seen so far, I'd say Wall-E - which will have the longest life of the three because of the way it plays to family crowds - will wind up with about $215 million, Wanted will finish in the $130 - $140 million range, and Get Smart might hit $125 million. Wall-E, of course, is the biggest investment, with production costs exceeding Wanted and Get Smart combined, so its bar is set quite a bit higher. Both Wanted and Get Smart have made their money back already, and Wall-E still needs help. Then we get to Meet Dave, which will officially be the biggest flop of the summer, bigger than The Love Guru and bigger than Speed Racer. In fact, it's the biggest bomb since Eddie Murphy's Pluto Nash six years ago. I'm struggling to come up with another $100 million that made so little. You do the math: A reported $100 million budget, $1.7 million on opening day. Let's compare, shall we: Wanted made over half its budget back in the first weekend, The Strangers doubled its budget in the same time frame. It took Iron Man and Indiana Jones about three weeks to be in the black, just from domestic receipts, much less time if you count international returns. Dave, at this rate, would need to make a million bucks a day for over three months to turn a profit. Sadly, it will never again put up these kind of numbers after its first three days. That's a bad sign. When the premiere may have cost more than you made on day one in theaters...that's a flop. We're looking at a $4 million weekend, or 4% of the budget. Predict about half as much next weekend. And that's the bulk of its box office action. How much can Meet Dave make? I don't know, maybe $9 million, $12 million if it goes on a hot streak. It probably won't break $10 million, however, since Fox will shred the number of theaters it's in for next weekend. They're probably losing money every day it plays after Sunday just in theater rentals. So this will be the only major summer release - and anything that opens in 3,000 theaters counts as a major release - that won't break $20 million. I honestly don't know if it can get to $10 million.

And because of Eddie Murphy's incalculable hubris and director Brian Robbins' incalculable lack of ability, I couldn't be happier.

Comments

[JMK]

Eddie Murphy/Brian Robbins...the defective version of Deniro (or is that DiCaprio now?)/Scorsese!

[CJ]

Fox won't shred the number of theaters for Meet Dave next weekend since it forces theaters to sign 2 week booking contracts, like most major studios.

[Get The Big Picture]

See, I heard they practically had to beg for the theaters as it is. You're probably right, though. Even a week ahead of Dark Knight, when theater owners would gladly run that on more screens, the majors will try to get their two weeks.

I see a lot of symmetry here with Gigli, which was in roughly the same position five years ago. It had the two-week run, as you mention - and thanks for correcting me on that - and then Sony went from 2,215 theaters to 73 in week three. That's more than I thought they'd even do with Meet Dave, incidentally.

[laura]

i can't believe it made 1.7 million. who are the people who watched it? actually never mind i don't want to know...

[Robb]

I saw meet dave, if you love a stupid comedy, prob one of the funniest movies ive seen in the past 5 years...amazing

[Get The Big Picture]

You're not welcome here...unless you're joking.

[Nick D]

So if someone doesn't agree with what you think, they aren't welcome here?

Grow up.

[Get The Big Picture]

Hi Nick -

That was a joke. If I didn't want opinions, I'd turn off the comments feature. Pretty simple to do. Besides, if everyone agreed with me, it'd be a dark, dreary world with nothing but modern houses and Asian girls.