Sunday
13Jul2008
Why 'The Dark Knight' Might Not Break Box Office Records
Sunday, July 13, 2008 at 9:24PM 
There's very little doubt about what movie will have the
longest lines next weekend.
The Dark Knight may break the all-time opening
weekend record. Then again, it might not, if a lot of people, believing
it will break the opening weekend record, don't want to screw with the long
lines. Maybe they'll stay away completely, or maybe, having spent all that time
in line just to see sold out theaters for The Dark Knight, they'll see
something else instead.
The summer movie season has a few weeks where it seems
as though one movie has a weekend all to itself, but it's hardly the case here.
In fact, with all the talk surrounding how The Dark Knight might make
$160, $180 million dollars in three days - speculation based primarily on geeked-up
hope more than anything else - it's worth pointing out that of the top three
films of all time in terms of stratospheric debuts, only one had another wide
release opening against it.
In May 2007, Spider-Man 3 squared off against
Lucky You, a long-delayed and poorly received gambling movie that opened in
2,500 theaters, earning a little over $5 million. Spidey also had the
very distinct advantage of facing no real holdover competition from previous
weeks; Disturbia was the outgoing number one movie, and it had already
been at the top spot for three weeks, because April 2007 had a lot of so-so
movies. I mean, in its last week at number one, Disturbia only made $9
million. It could barely put up a fight against Spider-Man.
The second highest-grossing weekend ever, Pirates of
the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, matched up against one new release, as
well, A Scanner Darkly, which did OK considering it was released in 17
theaters in July 2006. Pirates had an obstacle Spider-Man did not,
namely that there were still plenty of people lining up to see the rest of the
films in the top five. Superman Returns, The Devil Wears Prada, Click,
and Cars all made at least $125 million, and two of them hit $200
million.
Shrek the Third kind of followed the
Spider-Man 3 model. When it was released, also in May of last year, Fay
Grim was its biggest new rival (28 theaters). Of course, there was still
Spider-Man to contend with, since it hit theaters two weeks earlier, and a
smattering of entries from the week in between those blockbusters that included
Delta Farce, 28 Weeks Later, Georgia Rule, and The Ex,
movies that combined to make $50 million in the U.S.
And because Pirates actually made $100 million
more than both Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third and it faced much
heavier competition out of the gate, I'd say that this is the film The Dark
Knight should be compared to. Even without looking at what else opens next
week, to make $140 million in an environment with Hellboy, Hancock,
and Wall-E still performing well would be a remarkable achievement.
As it happens, The Dark Knight will have to do
battle with more than just those three past number ones. Two other wide releases
stand in its way,
Mamma Mia! - which will be an enormous
international hit because of the connection to the musical and ABBA - and the
animated
Space Chimps. But that's not all The Dark
Knight will have to overcome if, as fanboys believe, we'll flirt with $200
million next weekend. In addition to the "major" competition, the new Batman
movie actually faces nine other movies opening on July 18th, according to
Moviefone. That's right: There are 12 movies
hitting theaters next weekend.
As a service to you, and in the interest of fairness
since we have stuffed this place with Dark Knight coverage over the past few
weeks, here are the trailers for every other new movie in theaters on the 18th.
Mamma Mia!
Don't laugh; the musical made a cool $2 billion during
its universal run as a stage musical. Odds are, there's at least a couple
hundred million in worldwide box office waiting for this one, despite whatever
start it gets off to here in the states.
Pearl is a real-life Edward Scissorhands, at least when it comes to landscaping. An African-American who wanted to move into a white neighborhood but was told by a prospective neighbor that black people don't keep their yards looking nice, Pearl instead moved into a nearby black neighborhood, where he was determined to win Lawn of the Month. Instead, he created art out of shrubbery, and has been doing it for 30 years now.
Reader Comments (9)
Even snowballs have a chance in hell...right?
Thanks for all the trailers. That was like a trailer film festival. Very cool. I'm glad to see that I have alternatives to the Dark Knight. Choice is always good!
Still a little shocked that I watched them all, here is what I thought...
1. Mama Mia: This movie will be critic proof, and should have a nice run.
2. Space Chimps: Why? Did the studio need something to attach a trailer to this Summer?
3. TransSiberian: Ben Kingsly keeps rocking the Sexy Beast, and I for one, never get tired of it.
4. Felon: How cool that we have a movie with a former Batman opening on the same day as the new new one! How very Val Kilmer! Did he produce it? The only thing that would make it cooler is if Adam West and Michael Keaton had cameos. (Clooney is safe...for now).
5. Lou Reed's Berlin:From Diving Bell to this? What's with critically acclaimed directors doing concert films? Easy money?
6. A Man Named Pearl: I kept waiting for Ty Pennington to pop out of the bushes...
7. Take: The movie the director made to get noticed so he can make the movie he really wants to make next movie.
8. The Doorman: Is this actually playing in a theater, or on E! Latenight? (You know, after The Soup replay?)
9. A Very British Gangster: Echoes of Man Bites Dog. I thought that was real too.
10. Before I forget: Just did.
11. The Mad Detective: Looks like another great Asian import that American producers will find a way to eff up in about two years...
Keep 'em coming. I need more movies to add to the old NetFlix queue.
Last time I checked, this year's trendy indie darling, The Wackness is also opening this week. At least here locally in Phoenix.
It is here in Phoenix, yes, but it's been open for a while, a couple of weeks at least. But these are all brand new films, at least in terms of theatrical releases. None of them pose a real threat, although Mamma Mia! will make some money.
It's crazy how high the predictions are for Dark Knight, though. The studio hopes for $100 million, Peter at /film I think says $130, which is the ballpark I'm playing in. I've seen another one around $145, which I can believe, too. But the $200 million, number one for a month, beat Titanic predictions are laughable.
$200 million, honestly? $50 million more than the biggest debut every, against legitimate box office competition? That just doesn't make any sense. I'm not saying it can't happen, but to predict it as if it's a formality is not terribly pragmatic.
$155.34 million. You must feel pretty stupid now, huh?
Not really, no. You see, I predicted on Thursday that the high end for The Dark Knight was exactly $155 million. I also said it would make $146 million, so I was off by $9 million, or about 6% of its total box office. You know who should feel stupid? Guys who said this will beat Titanic to become the biggest movie of all time.
i'm not saying that this movie will beat titanic, but it sure in the hell is on a path too. Titanic only made so much money because for three months there was nothing to compete with it. If you look at the dailies at boxofficemojo then you will see that it only brought in like 8 or 9 million a day during the weeks and like 15-20 million on weekends.
While my personal preference is Dark Knight over Shitanic anyday; as worldwide level I don't think DarkKnight would do as well as Titanic.
Let's look at Indian market for hollywood:
- English movies are typically meant for Youth, Upper class, big city middle class; but never _masses_. So we are looking at a market of max 10 million viewers only. The remaining 99.990 billion is oblivious to Hollywood.
- Titanic till date has been the only non-indian movie in India which pulled the "masses" to the theatres. And I am still talking about 2-3% from the 99.990 billion. That makes is 2-3 billion viewers. Dark Knight - which is probably going down the history as a phenomenon - is still restricted to the 10million market. (Though I expect >20% of those 10million to flock to the theatres).
Cheers.
Mux
How funny, at fairly substantial column about a prediction that was pretty wrong :P