Monday
21Jul2008
'The Dark Knight' Assaults the Record Book
Monday, July 21, 2008 at 3:25PM
The numbers are staggering. Now that we've had a day to
reflect on
The Dark Knight's record-breaking million
debut, some of the other numbers are coming into focus, including one record it
didn't set in its landmark opening weekend.
Of course, $158 million is the new standard for
blockbusters; that's the new actual number provided today by
Box Office Mojo. There have only been 11 films
to debut with over $100 million in Friday - Sunday ticket sales, a trend that
began with Spider-Man in 2002. I remember when Jurassic Park and
its $47 million opening weekend was a goal nobody could ever hope to reach
again, and 15 years later, The Dark Knight made that much in two of the
three days.
Fueled by a deep devotion to the character as well as by
interest in
Heath Ledger's performance as The Joker, The
Dark Knight was the epitome of a lines-around-the-block movie this weekend.
We know it sets the mark for opening day box office and opening weekend box
office, and it's fairly obvious that it will become the first movie to hit $200
million in a week. I've predicted that it will take 13 days - itself a record -
for The Dark Knight to enter the $300 million realm.
All told, The Dark Knight helped Hollywood make
its most money ever at the megaplexes in one weekend: $253 million or, the
amount I'd pay to not have to sit through a double feature of The Love Guru
and Meet Dave.
But it wasn't a clean sweep for the Batman sequel, and
in fact, it wasn't the only movie to make history over the weekend.
Mamma Mia! not only weathered the storm of
The Dark Knight, finishing second with over $27 million in receipts, it also
celebrated a record opening for a musical, breaking the mark set last summer by
Hairspray. That's even more impressive knowing the obvious obstacle standing in
its way.
Where does The Dark Knight go from here? What's
the ceiling? I think you'd have to estimate at least $60 million during the next
week, with likely another $65 million or better over the weekend. I wouldn't be
shocked to see a ten-day total of about $270 million or more. Then you figure at
least another $50 million in the next seven days ($320 million) and probably
another $50 - $60 million after that. So is $400 million a possibility? Sure,
but it would have to keep the buzz going and have a lot of repeat business after
its first month in theaters. That's going to be hard to sustain, but it's
certainly not impossible. I'd cap it at about $385 million, give or take.












Reader Comments (15)
you're a moron
Any truth to the early speculation that Eddie Murphy and Mike Myers will be villains in the third installment?
The first Spider-Man crossed $400 million domestically. I wonder if anyone will ever knock Titanic off its $600 million perch.
Two things:
1) A guy named "stinkynuts" called me a moron. Solid logic, my friend. And well supported, to boot.
2) I don't know what it is, but $400 million movies just aren't happening at the same rate as the other points on the curve. Only five movies have ever done it in their initial release (although E.T. did $360 million 26 years ago, which would be a lot more today). Only two flicks have done it since Spider-Man, Shrek 2 and the second Pirates.
I can't imagine what happened last year, outside of Spider-Man sucking ass. Perhaps length is an issue, because you would've thought either Spidey or Pirates would've been in the $400 ballpark, but neither got close. The Dark Knight has a chance, but I think home video turning titles around so much quicker now and increased competition from tentpole movies almost every month outside of summer will limit $400 million movies across the board.
Titanic seems safe, if only because that was such an anomaly. It was number one like 12 weeks after it opened. Again: Competition vs. no competition. The Dark Knight has tougher competition in August than previous Augusts have ever brought, and Titanic faced next to nothing.
At first I thought that Stinkynuts was Eddie Murphy in disguise. But after giving it some though I realized his alias would be SyphlisticColon.
Then I thought it was Uwe Boll. But you actually posted something nice about him this week.
So that's out too.
This leaves only one other possible candidate:
Peter Carlton, the executive producer of Donkey Punch, who, from what I understand, believes his movie will outgross Titanic internationally, and was upset that he didn't at least get a mention.
i saw the movie tonite. good flick.
but in all these numbers calculations, is anyone figuring in that movies cost 11 bucks this year vs. 9 bucks last year? as far as dallas prices?
definitely, it is a good movie, doing well, etc... but to compare it to titanic's $600 million domestic gross???
say it breaks that gross... what does that mean? not only does it cost more to see a movie these days compared to twelve years ago... but the dollar isn't worth so much either :-)
To that end, check out this list, which has been adjusted for inflation. In current dollars, both Star Wars and Gone With the Wind have earned over a billion dollars domestically. It's interesting to see what slips into the top ten or twenty, including such blasts from the past as The Sound of Music, The Exorcist, and The Ten Commandments.
And no one's counted the factor of pirating movies. Why pay $15 to see a movie when you can watch it in the comfort of your own home? I mean... nothing beats a big screen and surround sound... but what family doesn't have those these days?
When titanic was released, it wasn't such a problem... that's why no one will ever beat it's gross.
People also go to the movies for the communal experience. Titanic was a phenomenon as a result of this, I don't think the recreation of surround sound and giant screen televisions in the home really affects ticket sales as much as people think. I love me some DVDs, but there is something special about going to a theater that all movie lovers embrace.
Let's also take into account that although tickets cost more, there are also more theaters, and generally more prints being struck. So it all sort of evens out.
I absolutely agree with "me".
Not family friendly enough to beat titanic, and as Mr. Boyd said, to much competition.
Good point on the pirating. I'm not sure what their annual numbers are now; I know that two weeks ago, Torrent Freak said their number one pirated DVD was Gotham Knight, so I can only imagine what will happen when The Dark Knight makes it up there.
Although, while pirating is a big issue, I'd say if you put 100 people I knew in a room, less than ten of them would even know what Bit Torrent is. It's not like my dad would download the movie illegally if he didn't want to wait in line.
I had a roomie a few years ago who was big into downloading movies and kept asking me why I wouldn't follow suit.
My answer was "dude, Redbox is like a buck, and the public library is free."
Piracy is a bigger problem overseas I think, and a big reason why the true international gross of even the biggest American movies is so small...
Whether it is accepted that the U.S economy is in a state of demise or not, the movie triumphed in spite of the current fiscal conditions.
Yes, movie tickets are inflated, but a lot of that inflation goes to the theaters and it's employees considering the amount of employee's workin' these places and their variable rates. Not to mention hidden and "BS" fees that are included in the ticket prices.
Actually, I work at a movie theatre and our theatre only makes 10% of our ticket prices. That means out of our $7 rate, the theatre gets a whopping 70 cents. Oh, and they pay their workers minimum wage, so I beg to differ that most of the money goes to the theatres now. That is why concessions are so high. That is the only thing theatres really make money on.