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Monday
21Jul2008

'The Dark Knight' Assaults the Record Book

The numbers are staggering. Now that we've had a day to reflect on The Dark Knight's record-breaking million debut, some of the other numbers are coming into focus, including one record it didn't set in its landmark opening weekend.

Of course, $158 million is the new standard for blockbusters; that's the new actual number provided today by Box Office Mojo. There have only been 11 films to debut with over $100 million in Friday - Sunday ticket sales, a trend that began with Spider-Man in 2002. I remember when Jurassic Park and its $47 million opening weekend was a goal nobody could ever hope to reach again, and 15 years later, The Dark Knight made that much in two of the three days.

Fueled by a deep devotion to the character as well as by interest in Heath Ledger's performance as The Joker, The Dark Knight was the epitome of a lines-around-the-block movie this weekend. We know it sets the mark for opening day box office and opening weekend box office, and it's fairly obvious that it will become the first movie to hit $200 million in a week. I've predicted that it will take 13 days - itself a record - for The Dark Knight to enter the $300 million realm.

All told, The Dark Knight helped Hollywood make its most money ever at the megaplexes in one weekend: $253 million or, the amount I'd pay to not have to sit through a double feature of The Love Guru and Meet Dave.

But it wasn't a clean sweep for the Batman sequel, and in fact, it wasn't the only movie to make history over the weekend. Mamma Mia! not only weathered the storm of The Dark Knight, finishing second with over $27 million in receipts, it also celebrated a record opening for a musical, breaking the mark set last summer by Hairspray. That's even more impressive knowing the obvious obstacle standing in its way.

Where does The Dark Knight go from here? What's the ceiling? I think you'd have to estimate at least $60 million during the next week, with likely another $65 million or better over the weekend. I wouldn't be shocked to see a ten-day total of about $270 million or more. Then you figure at least another $50 million in the next seven days ($320 million) and probably another $50 - $60 million after that. So is $400 million a possibility? Sure, but it would have to keep the buzz going and have a lot of repeat business after its first month in theaters. That's going to be hard to sustain, but it's certainly not impossible. I'd cap it at about $385 million, give or take.

Reader Comments (15)

you're a moron

Monday, July 21, 2008 | Unregistered Commenterstinkynuts

Any truth to the early speculation that Eddie Murphy and Mike Myers will be villains in the third installment?

Monday, July 21, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWill

The first Spider-Man crossed $400 million domestically. I wonder if anyone will ever knock Titanic off its $600 million perch.

Monday, July 21, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterCarv

Two things:

1) A guy named "stinkynuts" called me a moron. Solid logic, my friend. And well supported, to boot.

2) I don't know what it is, but $400 million movies just aren't happening at the same rate as the other points on the curve. Only five movies have ever done it in their initial release (although E.T. did $360 million 26 years ago, which would be a lot more today). Only two flicks have done it since Spider-Man, Shrek 2 and the second Pirates.

I can't imagine what happened last year, outside of Spider-Man sucking ass. Perhaps length is an issue, because you would've thought either Spidey or Pirates would've been in the $400 ballpark, but neither got close. The Dark Knight has a chance, but I think home video turning titles around so much quicker now and increased competition from tentpole movies almost every month outside of summer will limit $400 million movies across the board.

Titanic seems safe, if only because that was such an anomaly. It was number one like 12 weeks after it opened. Again: Competition vs. no competition. The Dark Knight has tougher competition in August than previous Augusts have ever brought, and Titanic faced next to nothing.

Monday, July 21, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

At first I thought that Stinkynuts was Eddie Murphy in disguise. But after giving it some though I realized his alias would be SyphlisticColon.

Then I thought it was Uwe Boll. But you actually posted something nice about him this week.

So that's out too.

This leaves only one other possible candidate:

Peter Carlton, the executive producer of Donkey Punch, who, from what I understand, believes his movie will outgross Titanic internationally, and was upset that he didn't at least get a mention.

Monday, July 21, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWill

i saw the movie tonite. good flick.

but in all these numbers calculations, is anyone figuring in that movies cost 11 bucks this year vs. 9 bucks last year? as far as dallas prices?

definitely, it is a good movie, doing well, etc... but to compare it to titanic's $600 million domestic gross???

say it breaks that gross... what does that mean? not only does it cost more to see a movie these days compared to twelve years ago... but the dollar isn't worth so much either :-)

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered Commentercolin boyd - the one in dallas

To that end, check out this list, which has been adjusted for inflation. In current dollars, both Star Wars and Gone With the Wind have earned over a billion dollars domestically. It's interesting to see what slips into the top ten or twenty, including such blasts from the past as The Sound of Music, The Exorcist, and The Ten Commandments.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterCarv

And no one's counted the factor of pirating movies. Why pay $15 to see a movie when you can watch it in the comfort of your own home? I mean... nothing beats a big screen and surround sound... but what family doesn't have those these days?

When titanic was released, it wasn't such a problem... that's why no one will ever beat it's gross.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMe

People also go to the movies for the communal experience. Titanic was a phenomenon as a result of this, I don't think the recreation of surround sound and giant screen televisions in the home really affects ticket sales as much as people think. I love me some DVDs, but there is something special about going to a theater that all movie lovers embrace.

Let's also take into account that although tickets cost more, there are also more theaters, and generally more prints being struck. So it all sort of evens out.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMRPigg

I absolutely agree with "me".

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterG.H

Not family friendly enough to beat titanic, and as Mr. Boyd said, to much competition.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterOrinn

Good point on the pirating. I'm not sure what their annual numbers are now; I know that two weeks ago, Torrent Freak said their number one pirated DVD was Gotham Knight, so I can only imagine what will happen when The Dark Knight makes it up there.

Although, while pirating is a big issue, I'd say if you put 100 people I knew in a room, less than ten of them would even know what Bit Torrent is. It's not like my dad would download the movie illegally if he didn't want to wait in line.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

I had a roomie a few years ago who was big into downloading movies and kept asking me why I wouldn't follow suit.

My answer was "dude, Redbox is like a buck, and the public library is free."

Piracy is a bigger problem overseas I think, and a big reason why the true international gross of even the biggest American movies is so small...

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWill

Whether it is accepted that the U.S economy is in a state of demise or not, the movie triumphed in spite of the current fiscal conditions.

Yes, movie tickets are inflated, but a lot of that inflation goes to the theaters and it's employees considering the amount of employee's workin' these places and their variable rates. Not to mention hidden and "BS" fees that are included in the ticket prices.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008 | Unregistered Commentersundoro

Actually, I work at a movie theatre and our theatre only makes 10% of our ticket prices. That means out of our $7 rate, the theatre gets a whopping 70 cents. Oh, and they pay their workers minimum wage, so I beg to differ that most of the money goes to the theatres now. That is why concessions are so high. That is the only thing theatres really make money on.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterCG

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