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Saturday
26Jul2008

Box Office - 'Dark Knight' On Top on Friday, 'Step Brothers' Surging

While I wouldn't go so far as to say The Dark Knight's bubble has burst, I must admit that when I went by my local megaplex last night at 7:30, I just walked up to the ticket window with no line whatsoever. And the film's Friday night box office, while still incredibly impressive, may signal the coming of The Dark Knight's last big payday.

Earning $23 million on Friday night, I'd say that The Dark Knight is now in the $65 million ballpark for the entire weekend, about $10 million behind our projections of $75 million (and we had one of the more conservative forecasts for the weekend). Of course, with a ridiculous $261 million in total domestic box office to this point, according to Box Office Mojo, the movie only needs to make $38 million and change to hit $300 million in ten days, and I'd say that's almost a certainty.

What is less certain is what a decline of possibly 60% from its record-shattering debut means over the long haul. The comparisons to Titanic seems less viable, because that was a movie that remained in theaters for over seven months and never earned under a million a weekend. The Dark Knight is an instant impact kind of movie, not a lasting impact kind of movie. It won't be in theaters at Christmas (it won't be in theaters on November 1st, for that matter). I expected more repeat business this weekend than I think it's getting, and while the film could step it up on Saturday and make $27 million, putting it back on track for a $70 million-plus second stanza, this weekend will still probably be its last hurrah.

As for $400 million, the only significant number between the Batman sequel and Titanic, it's still a possibility, but if The Dark Knight loses half of the audience it already lost from week one, then you're looking at a movie that would need to make $30 - $40 million in about six weeks after the number of theaters gets scaled back and the commercials stop running. It's still entirely possible, and we'll have a better gauge on it after next weekend. It does make you wonder how in the hell Shrek 2 made well over $400 million, though.

The other big surprise in my mind was the performance of Step Brothers, which is on pace to jump up to $30 million in its opening weekend, well ahead of most estimates, which had the Will Ferrell comedy landing around $25 million. It is clearly the new release selling all the tickets, as The X-Files: I Want to Believe will be lucky to break $15 million this weekend, really hurting the chances of future projects for Mulder and Scully.

Elsewhere, Mamma Mia! is halfway to $100 million in seven days, and since only a handful of musicals have ever made $100 million, that's actually quite a feat. Hancock has surpassed $200 million in ticket sales in less than a month, giving Will Smith back-to-back $200 million movies in the past year, and Wall-E continues to close in on that figure, too, needing only $10 million more to get there, and it should accomplish that feat by next weekend.

Reader Comments (9)

what is it colin is the dark knight a dissapointment for you

Saturday, July 26, 2008 | Unregistered Commenterchris meade

Okay, this just kind of proves you don't get how box office grosses work. Why are you predicting $65 million now when everyone else is predicting $76? Friday are usually the weakest grossing day of the weekend wtih Saturday being ebst and Sunday second. If it finishes higher than your $65 million prediction it will proove you don't know what you're doing and you should shut this site down.

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMark

As the king of an amoral universe, as a purveyor of unrestricted evil for fun, Ledger’s dastardly villain, attired as sort of a rotting Clarabell, has chosen his own damnation. He’s jumped into an abyss he has dug himself, and he wants to pull us along.
I m watched The Dark Knight Movies Here
http://www.80millionmoviesfree.com

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterShanika

Mark -

You're absolutely wrong. Sunday is by far the weakest day of the weekend. How do I know? Because of the top 20 earners in 2008, only one of them made more money on Sunday than on Friday: Kung Fu Panda. One out of twenty. Your theory is 5% accurate, 95% utter horseshit.

Yes, Saturday is traditionally the strongest (and for the record, if you'd bothered to read the post instead of getting offended that I said something less than glowingly positive about The Dark Knight), you'd notice I did predict that it would make $75 million on Thursday.

Where you got the idea that Sunday is the second biggest day, I have no idea. And this summer, most of the big movies have opened with larger Fridays than Saturdays, making the prediction game a little harder to play.

By the way, when others like FirstShowing.net and Slashfilm were saying The Dark Knight could debut with $200 million - should they shut their sites down, too? - I said the ceiling was $155 million. That was within 2% of its gross. If you look at this summer, I'm the only one I know of who said Wanted would be within $15 million of Wall-E, and I know I'm the only one who does this sort of thing who dared say Sex and the City would topple Indiana Jones.

The only things proven by this little exchange are that you can't spell "prove," and that when people come off like arrogant know-it-alls without doing a single sliver of research, I love taking them down.

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

Friday 23200000
Saturday 28100000
Sunday 24330000

I believe that places the order from highest to lowest as Saturday, Sunday, Friday. Yeah, I believe it does. Why, that's exactly what I said would happen, wasn't it? Well, that's a big oops for you, isn't it? I'll be anxiously waiting to hear you're shutting this farce of a site down.

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMark

You said, "Friday are usually the weakest grossing day of the weekend wtih Saturday being ebst (sic) and Sunday second." I thought you meant opening weekends. So maybe I misunderstood your poorly spelled argument.

However, even if you look at second weekends - take this one, for example - only three of the seven non-new releases in the top ten fit your model. You're still wrong.

Looking at the entire top twelve, new releases and movies already in theaters, there are still only five movies (less than half) that support your argument.

Any way you look at it, your premise is still shaky. And since you're so high on shutting down websites that don't guess correctly, ESPN should be closed immediately for saying the Patriots would win the Super Bowl last year.

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

Oh, and last weekend, your theory held up in four of the top 15 flicks, and two weeks ago, it was a full one-third of the movies! Nice going! You're so right!

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

Well, Mark is right for this weekend when it comes to Batman. Colin is right in general. On average, Sunday is the weakest at the box office. Most movies usually have the best numbers on Saturday.

I checked all this out on Boxofficemojo.com,

This movie broke the normal trend, and exceeded the 65 million you said it was on pace to hit Colin.

The petty sniping makes people not want to read messages. "Proove" was a typo, since he spelled it properly in the first line. Sounds like a video game chat room, "You are an idiot because you spelled 'the' like this, 'teh'.

Grow up!

Sunday, July 27, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterD Foreman

Mark, it is extremely hard to take you seriously. Colin provides the math he uses in making predictions and explains it in a well written article. You provide very little actual "prooof" (or however you would spell that word) backing up your claims, and your writing skills seem to be at about a 9th grade level. Based on that, how could anyone take you seriously? All I'm saying is that if you are going to argue that something is wrong you should at least try to show a little intelligence. It makes what you're writing more credible. Remember, spelling, grammar and punctuation are good. Supporting evidence for your argument is good. I hope that helps.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterMichael

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