free analytics for godaddy

GTBP CONNECT


                             
Wholesale Home Audio & Video
This area does not yet contain any content.
This area does not yet contain any content.
« Check Out the International Trailer for Baz Luhrmann's 'Australia' | Main | 'Dark Knight' Cast Members Weigh Ledger's Oscar Chances »
Thursday
Jul032008

Fearless Forecast - 'Hancock,' Will Smith Will Own The Fourth of July

Will Smith's box office power is well documented: His last eight movies have earned over $100 million each, and his last three - I Am Legend, The Pursuit of Happyness, and Hitch - have earned $1.25 billion worldwide. Right now, he's hotter than ever...and he has the whole weekend to himself.

Of course, Hancock was originally supposed to open on Wednesday, but they pushed back the release date within the past few days to allow for paid sneaks on Tuesday night. So...as of right now, Hancock has already made $24 million and change. That's not a bad number, but I don't get the move from an unopposed Friday to Tuesday night in the first place. All the move does is reward people who were really paying attention. Most people wouldn't go to a new movie on Tuesday anyway, because they're just not trained to. It's a weekend sport.

So now the question becomes how much will Hancock make not over three days but over...uh...hang on...5.3 days. The math gets a little fuzzy because he won't have a completely massive Friday, the kind we'd expect from a Will Smith summer movie. And at the end of the protracted weekend, the total number will reflect all of the box office and not just the Friday - Sunday numbers.

We'll assume Hancock will make about another $15 million today, bringing its pre-weekend total to about $40 million. Lock that number away until later. Ordinarily, I'd say this movie could make about $80 million in its debut weekend, but that number becomes harder to accept knowing that the real diehards will have seen it before Saturday. So, I'm betting that we'll see about a $27 million Friday, a $24 million Saturday, and a $17 million Sunday. Add that up and you, friend, have $68 million.

Remember that $40 million from earlier? Now Big Willie Style has made $108 million in six days. Not bad. No records, certainly, but it extends his streak of $100 million movies in less than a week.

The Top Five:

1 - Hancock ($68 million)

2 - Wall-E ($36 million)

3 - Wanted ($24 million)

4 - Get Smart ($12 million)

5 - Kit Kittredge ($9 million)

Reader Comments (3)

As far as I know, Hancock was scheduled to be released on July 2nd all along (prior to the Tue. night previews)...personally, I can't remember the last movie to actually be released on July 4th...

Thursday, July 3, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterJMK

You are correct, sir. I had it in my head all wrong, what with the release date change and all. Scary Movie 2 opened on July 4, 2001.

Thursday, July 3, 2008 | Registered CommenterGet The Big Picture

I happen to see the movie and it was really good but i didn't see Wall-E yet so i really don't know right now if it will.

If you are wondering how i saw the movie early it's because of my website

Thursday, July 3, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterPilarVIRUS

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>