website tracking
Search The Big Picture

« Warning: This City Is Protected by 'The Spirit' | Main | Surprisingly, New TV Spots for 'Death Race' Are Loud and Fast »
Thursday
31Jul2008

Fearless Forecast - 'The Dark Knight' Falls to 'The Mummy'

DateThursday, July 31, 2008 at 2:31PM
Will The Dark Knight hit $400 million after this weekend? Probably not. That number should fall Monday or Tuesday, and when it does, The Dark Knight will be only the sixth movie to reach it in its original release. Looking at its place in history, this movie ought to be in second place all-time by August 18th. That's $460 million, by the way, and after that, who knows?

We predicted earlier this week that The Dark Knight will hit $500 million by the end of August, and I still think that's a real distinct possibility, with $525 - $550 being the most likely final resting place. If it performs exactly the way Pirates 2 did two summers ago - at least this is what we worked out in our column about The Dark Knight's pursuit of Titanic - then $550 is kind of a magic number. Personally, I don't think it'll get there, but that's what the exercise showed.

It faces a little competition this week - and very likely a new number one movie in the country - in The Mummy: Curse of the Dragon Emperor. The numbers should be close, with maybe ten million bucks separating the two, but it's hard for any movie to hold on at number one for three weeks, especially in summer. And the Mummy series certainly has its fans. It'll probably fade quickly after a strong opening weekend, but $50 million isn't completely out of the question here.

Kevin Costner's Swing Vote also arrives in theaters tomorrow, with much more modest goals. Unfortunately, the advertising for it is dreadful and does a horrible job getting to the heart of the movie. It's a better flick than the commercials make it out to be, so while a realistic debut of around $10 million should actually be a few million more than that if people were being fed the right information.

I also expect the movies still in the top five to continue performing well. Mamma Mia! will inch closer to $100 million, a milestone it'll hit sooner than later. Despite my opinion of the film, the placement of Mamma Mia! opposite The Dark Knight and then against the new releases last week and this week have made it perfect counterprogramming. Only Swing Vote really shares a fair percentage of the Mamma Mia! audience, and that movie won't get too big a crowd, anyway. Step Brothers was very strong last weekend, raking in $30 million, and I don't see the bottom dropping out this week. The X-Files, which struggled mightily in its opening weekend, will likely do the same again. And that's kind of a shame.

The Top Five:

1 - The Mummy ($47 million)

2 - The Dark Knight ($42 million)

3 - Step Brothers ($16 million)

4 - Mamma Mia! ($13 million)

5 - Swing Vote ($7.5 million)

AuthorColin Boyd | | in , , , , , , | Print ArticlePrint Article | | Comment1 Comment |

Reader Comments (1)

I read an article the other day that predicted mathematically why the X Files would tank...It was pretty interesting.

Check it out (Courtesy of Wired.com):

Scott Brown's Nostalgorithm for Pop-Culture Sensations

Thursday, July 31, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWill

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>