Box Office - 'Hancock' Just a Mere Mortal on Friday

Saturday

05Jul2008

Box Office - 'Hancock' Just a Mere Mortal on Friday

Saturday, July 5, 2008 at 12:39PM

And so the Hancock Express has started to slow down. I figured it would, but I thought it had another big, big day left in the tank. So after throwing more than $40 million on the board after its first two-and-a-half days (Wednesday and Thursday plus the limited Tuesday night shows), Hancock was on pace to move past $100 million by Monday morning.

Not anymore.

Stumbling in a big way Friday, the new Will Smith movie only added $18.8 million on the Fourth of July, according to Box Office Mojo, which significantly hurts its chances to give Smith his ninth consecutive $100 million movie, at least within the first week. Now standing at $60 million, it seems impossible for this movie to make $40 million in days five and six of its release. Or days four and five if you don't count Tuesday. The point is, however, that this still should have made $20 million on Friday despite the millions of people who had already seen it.

It seems highly unlikely that we'll see a spike on Saturday, although it's possible that Hancock could make upwards of $23 million today. That's the only chance it has to become a $100 million earner before the end of the weekend. More than likely, though, our Thursday box office forecast just missed the downturn by a day. I said then that most everyone who was really eager to see it will have done so by Saturday, but now it looks like they have done it by Friday.

Still, $93 million isn't too shabby for a week, and that's probably the low end of Hancock's potential the rest of the way. Maybe it gets to $97 million, but the precious $100 million seems like a stretch.

Elsewhere, Wanted has already made its money back, eclipsing $75 million in seven days, and Wall-E has cleared $100 million, although its budget was $180 million, so there's still a lot of work to be done there. Like Hancock, Get Smart will have to wait until next week to blow out 100 million candles on the cake; the spy comedy sits $11 million away after a $3 million Friday. Kung Fu Panda is likely another weekend-plus away from $200 million.

One of the big pre-Dark Knight questions is whether Iron Man will be the top earning movie of the summer up to that point or if Indiana Jones can catch it. I think Indy will catch it, because it's only $7 million off the pace now, and it's in twice as many theaters. Iron Man's box office will probably stall at just under $320 million and Indiana Jones could get to $325. Maybe.

And for the second straight outing, Marvel has to be disappointed with the run of an Incredible Hulk movie. The new one seemed to shake off the ghost of Hulk past, but with only $120 million in ticket sales over three weeks, that's not enough to continue the franchise, in my opinion. What kind of miracle do they expect to happen the next time they do it? $150 million movies with that kind of expectation and built-in audience should make $150 million. Time to let this character go, I think.

And maybe it will teach Marvel something about the appeal of some of their characters. I think Thor is going to be a flop, for example, and we don't know anything about the movie. I just don't believe it plays as well cinematically as Spider-Man.

Colin Boyd |

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Saturday, July 5, 2008 |

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