Fearless Forecast - It's Simple, Jack: 'Tropic Thunder' Will Dethrone 'The Dark Knight'

Four and done for The Dark Knight? Yeah, I think that's accurate. Should the Batman sequel win a fifth weekend in a row at the box office, I'd be overwhelmed by how wrong I am (which happens less often than you might believe). We've covered ad nauseum the film's pursuit of Titanic, which was number one for a dozen weeks or so back in 1998. Why can't The Dark Knight do that? If you've followed our box office reports, you're no doubt tired of hearing me say it, but it bears repeating: Competition. At this point, there are just too many movies to see for the first time. I have no idea what percentage of The Dark Knight's potential audience has already seen it, but I'd wager it's close to 75 or 80%. Seeing a movie again, no matter how much you like it, is a tastier notion if there aren't other options you also want to check out. This week, three new releases hit theaters, all of which could steal a chunk of the Batman crowd. It's as crowded as any weekend this summer, actually, and by now, enough of The Dark Knight audience has eroded, clearing the way for a new number one movie. I see Tropic Thunder doing well, probably outperforming Pineapple Express over the weekend itself, spurred on by very good reviews, the controversy about its insensitivity toward people with mental disabilities, and the Depp-like goodwill toward Robert Downey Jr. Although we're reading its Wednesday numbers aren't as strong as Pineapple's - it's not even close - this movie skews much older, and by that, I mean people who have regular full-time jobs and can't just go see a movie on Wednesday night. No offense. I think it's going to have a stronger Friday than Wednesday, which Pineapple Express did not, and I think its Saturday will be even stronger. If those two days follow that course, we're looking at around $20 million before we get to Sunday. So, I figure, $27 for the weekend, and right around $40 - $42 million for the five-day total. What about Star Wars: The Clone Wars? This is a movie that reviews can help and hurt. If they're overwhelmingly positive (and so far they aren't), then it could attract the casual fan who's aware of the Lucas universe - the Lucasverse, if you will - but if the reviews aren't very good, then we'll probably see its target audience hit the theaters hard on Friday with drop-offs after that. Can it make $100 million with just its die-hard fans? Doubtful, but it could definitely finish in second place this weekend. The horror movie Mirrors is the third major release of the week. I think it's a mistake by Fox to not screen it for critics. In a weekend with this much competition, in an industry fueled by debut performances at the box office, any front page news is better than nothing. "Don't they usually do that with horror movies," you ask? Yes, but when that horror movie is the big movie of the weekend, it doesn't matter. It'll get on the front page of the paper anyway and it gets the most advertising by default. That's not the case here. Movies like Halloween will make the most money because they're in the preferred position that weekend, and for horror movies more than just about any other genre, the opening draw is a huge factor. I can't believe, given the success of The Strangers, that the studio is not letting the film be seen, even though it stars one of Fox's biggest names (Kiefer Sutherland). Why not just hold the movie until the new TV season starts and run ads during your first week of premieres? It won't cost you anything and it'll probably generate more buzz and more money. As it stands, despite appearing in over 2,000 theaters, Mirrors, whether it's good or not, will have to fend for itself. Terrible mistake, and I think the studio will regret it. The Top Five: 1 - Tropic Thunder ($27 million) 2 - Star Wars: The Clone Wars ($18 million) 3 - The Dark Knight ($16.5 million, $473 million total) 4 - Pineapple Express ($12.5 million) 5 - Mirrors ($9 million)

Comments

[yeah]

way to go on that one!