So if it's not a new movie at number one, I guess that means Tropic Thunder will win again, right? It could, but even under optimum conditions, it wouldn't be by a huge margin. It's still the best option in theaters, with the biggest names and the most buzz. However, the movie is still not poised to be the runaway hit I thought it would be. The only thing is, I'm troubled by the drop-off from an already less-than-stellar opening weekend. If the decline is just a little more than it should be, Death Race could slip in at number one without having a huge breakout weekend.

And what about The Dark Knight? What should even more new movies do to its chances to break $500 million? Nothing, really. Because they aren't must-see summer movies, that makes the Batman sequel an even better prospect for repeat business than it might normally be. By Monday, the second-biggest movie in history will be a week away from half a billion. The interest for me is how long Warner Bros. keeps it alive. It's currently in 3,600 theaters or so, but you can expect that number to be cut dramatically very soon. I still like the $535 million we proposed a month ago, with the possibility of more if the studio boosts the film again at Halloween.

The Top Five:

1 - Death Race ($15.5 million)

2 - Tropic Thunder ($15 million)

3 - The Dark Knight ($11 million)

4 - The House Bunny ($8.5 million)

5 - The Rocker ($6.5 million)