Saturday
Aug302008
Saturday, August 30, 2008 at 12:22PM Box Office - 'Babylon A.D.' Barely Leads the Weakest Weekend in Five Months
It's been a while since we've seen numbers like this:
The top five movies at the box office on Friday combined to make $13 million.
That's all five of them. We discussed the Labor Day weekend and Hollywood's
aversion to put out quality on the last unofficial weekend of summer in our
Fearless Forecast on Thursday. These numbers
back up our argument: If you release a
Tropic Thunder here or a
Step Brothers or a
Mummy on Labor Day, do you think they'd make
money? 
As it is, the race for the top spot is too close to
call. After Friday's estimates, according to
Box Office Mojo,
Babylon A.D. leads Tropic Thunder by a mere
$30,000. I think that will turn in favor of Tropic Thunder, because in
its third weekend, that film should be more stable and consistent over the four
days. The $3.1 million Babylon A.D. earned is the spike, the curious
crowd.
The House Bunny appears to have a better chance
of holding down third place, with $2.6 million on Friday. There's some distance
between that flick and both
Traitor and
The Dark Knight, which are trying to lock in a
fourth place finish. Kudos to Anna Faris, who deserves better material after
this.
Death Race has plummeted to seventh place,
while new release
Disaster Movie appears headed for a four-day
total in the $10 - $12 million range, which is $10 - $12 million more than it
deserves. It's the worst movie in at least six years.
How will these paltry numbers look after the four-day
weekend? I still think Tropic Thunder will finish on top. Babylon A.D.
might make a bit more money on Saturday than it did on Friday, but it will tail
off sharply after that, and as I said, Tropic Thunder is steady, and
shouldn't have a big dip or big gain over the next three days. The Dark
Knight should edge out Traitor - it only trails the Don Cheadle
thrilla by $10,000 after one day - for the same reason. Disaster Movie
could sneak into the top five, but the bad reviews and the beaten dead horse
will probably catch up to it and keep it where it is.
What about The Dark Knight's total? Still going
to hit $500 million this weekend, maybe $505 million after Monday. Worldwide,
the summer's box office king will eclipse $900 million and might be in the top
seven of all time internationally in another couple of weeks.



Reader Comments (1)
the previews for Babylon AD made me expect something a lot more original... it totally felt like a cross between Minority Report and the Fifth Element