Fearless Forecast - Will 'Pineapple Express' Get Higher Than 'Dark Knight'?

Thursday

07Aug2008

Fearless Forecast - Will 'Pineapple Express' Get Higher Than 'Dark Knight'?

Thursday, August 7, 2008 at 12:07PM

I guess the only question really worth asking this weekend is, "Can The Dark Knight win again?" The short answer is yes. A lot depends on Pineapple Express, the biggest new release of the weekend, but if The Dark Knight hits $24 million or more, the odds are probably in its favor.

For reasons I don't understand, both Pineapple Express and Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 have been bumped from a Friday release date to Wednesday. The Olympics start on Friday, but I was under the impression people stopped caring about the Olympics nearly 20 years ago. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Still, the studios are quaking in fear that Olympic fever is going to ruin the box office, and the loser in all of that is Pineapple Express. For one thing, you know who doesn't watch the Olympics and never has? The target audience for Pineapple Express. Had it opened on Friday, it would have most likely taken down The Dark Knight, at least on that day, setting itself up for a pretty good run at the number one spot. As it is, the Wednesday opening might take some of its Friday night crowd, and in a weekend that was already going to be a pretty close battle, it may cause Pineapple to settle for second place. I wouldn't be surprised if Express won the weekend, but I'm also not going to bet against The Dark Knight here. It still has one really strong weekend left.

Where would a $25 million weekend put it on the all-time list? How about third, less than $20 million away from Star Wars.

Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 isn't looking to become the number one flick this weekend, and it'll be happy to make about $20 million over its first five days, maybe a little more. Like Mamma Mia!, its audience is not the summer popcorn movie crowd, so Pants will slowly make a pretty good living as the last teenage girl movie of the season. In fact, it's probably the only teenage girl movie of the season. I don't think we'll see this one plummet in week two the way The Mummy will.

Speaking of The Mummy, you know, $40 million on opening weekend isn't bad at all. And without The Dark Knight, I think that movie's at least a $46 million debut last week. Unfortunately, negative reviews will hurt it moving forward in a marketplace with the wonderfully-received Batman movie; people who have seen neither won't line up for The Mummy this weekend, and its guaranteed audience may have already passed through the turnstiles. I expect this one to tumble this weekend, battling it out with the Sisterhood for third place.

The Top Five:

1 - The Dark Knight ($25 million)

2 - Pineapple Express ($23.5 million)

3 - The Mummy ($17 million)

4 - Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 ($15 million)

5 - Step Brothers ($9 million)

Colin Boyd |

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Reader Comments (2)

Pineapple made 12 million on wednesday which is quite strong for a R-comedy(hancock opened to 17 million on a wednesday), i think it has a good chance to take the crown this weekend. all the 18-27 guys out there like myself who've seen dark knight already are itching for another movie (and it sure wont be the mummy or sisterpants).

Thursday, August 7, 2008 |

Scott

Yeah, that's certainly possible. $12 million is quite a number. Of course, to say that it would make 70% of what Hancock made through the whole weekend would give you $48 million, which is almost twice what anyone would predict over those three days. Maybe over five days it gets near $50 million, but I doubt if it will have a bigger Friday than it did a Wednesday.

Thursday, August 7, 2008 |

Colin Boyd

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