Box Office Update - 'Pineapple Express' Up to $18 Million Pre-Weekend

We still don't know exactly what kind of weekend Pineapple Express will have, at least if we bring The Dark Knight into the conversation. We know that over the first five days, Wednesday to Sunday, the new Seth Rogen-James Franco comedy should be in the $45 million range.

It charged out of the gates on its opening day to an August mid-week record of over $12 million. That's a great number. However, on Thursday, according to Fantasy Moguls, the film lost roughly half that crowd, so it's starting the weekend with $18 million in the bank. If you'd asked me earlier in the week what kind of money Pineapple Express would get in its first two days, I probably would've said around $14 or $15 million. To me, it's not the $6 million on Thursday that's the anomaly but the $12 million on Wednesday. Fantasy Moguls also points out that The Dark Knight rebounded a little bit on Thursday, and the most logical group to contribute to its overflowing collection plate is males under the age of 25, the same audience that would see Pineapple Express. When we did our Fearless Forecast yesterday, before the Wednesday box office numbers were known, I said I thought it would be a very close race but I wouldn't bet against The Dark Knight. I also said that the Wednesday opening might hurt Pineapple Express over the weekend. Clearly, a lot of people would've seen it had its opening day been Friday; I think based on what we know now, the comedy would've have dethroned The Dark Knight without much trouble on a traditional weekend. But, since it did take in a record box office on Wednesday, what does that mean for Friday and Saturday? If it averages $12 million a day, we're looking at a $54 million five-day run, which is significantly higher than anyone would've thought. I wouldn't be shocked to see the number go back up to maybe $9 or $10 million on Friday or Saturday, but I don't know if it can sustain it over the course of the weekend. In other words, could this do $30 million, after already earning $18 from the people that couldn't wait to see it? I'm not sold on that concept. Especially after Thursday's steep decline. I still think a mid- to high-twenties is a good range over the weekend, with The Dark Knight right there with it. Could go either way, and a lot of it hinges on what Pineapple Express does today. If a large portion of the audience that couldn't wait to see it also just couldn't see it during the week, then it'll win. But if Wednesday reflects the strongest waters in the flood, then The Dark Knight could trip it up over the course of three days. Fantasy Moguls estimates $28.7 for Pineapple Express and $27 million for Dark Knight, both of which are higher than I'd predict. The difference between the numbers feels about right, although I'd have both movies a couple million dollars below that..