How 'Dark Knight' Can Get Even Closer to 'Titanic'

Wednesday

10Sep2008

How 'Dark Knight' Can Get Even Closer to 'Titanic'

Wednesday, September 10, 2008 at 12:09PM

About six weeks ago, when The Dark Knight became the fastest film ever to the $300 million mark, we asked a question that was on everyone's minds: Can it beat Titanic? We didn't believe it could get close, but then, after careful research into the track record of other recent blockbusters, we realized that this movie would definitely break $500 million and could, with the proper handling by Warner Bros. down the road, have a shot at $550 million or more.

We were laughed at. "Realistic expectations would put TDK at a final gross of anywhere from 475-510 million dollars total," we were told. But our numbers told us something different, and our numbers, at least to this point, have been pretty accurate. Leading up to Labor Day, we were within half of one percent of its actual gross, or within $2.5 million. The Dark Knight is over $510 million now, and it's still the number three movie in theaters. After Wednesday at the absolute latest, the Batman sequel will be at $513 million and counting. Yes, the counting is going much more slowly than it did in August, but we'll still be closing in on $520 million by the middle of next week.

That's a fantastic number, but there's no chance at all that you can add another $80 million to that domestic total if the movie will be out on DVD in two or three months.

But what if Warner Bros. - which just moved Harry Potter to July 2009 and now has no major film between Body of Lies on October 10th and the end of the year - decides to aggressively reposition The Dark Knight into a Halloween movie?

Why would they do that? Well, for starters, it wouldn't take too much effort for this movie to make several million more dollars, which is kind of like free money at this point for the studio. And as we just mentioned, they need something to help fill the cavernous hole left by the defection of Potter.

Also, Saw has had a stranglehold on Halloween for four years. Why not give it some competition? No, The Dark Knight probably wouldn't dethrone Saw, but with Disney again re-releasing The Nightmare Before Christmas, that tells you it's a pretty wide open field.

Thirdly, it would help position the DVD release, which is probably going to be the biggest DVD of all time.

What would make the movie worth watching again? On its own, even if WB just put the film in 1,000 theaters, did some midnight shows across the country, and invited people to come in costume, I think The Dark Knight could make a good $7 million that weekend. Halloween falls on a Friday, so that's immediately better for its chances to make money than if it were on a Tuesday. And that idea makes sense. You could expect a limited expansion - a last hurrah - to be successful on that weekend. For the record, Saw and Nightmare are being released on October 24th, which doesn't make any damn sense to me, since Halloween is on a weekend.

Now, what if Warner Bros. steals a page from the home video market and offers a limited edition Dark Knight in theaters? Would two or three extended scenes make you curious? There's still time to add some footage to the film, and since people didn't seem to mind the original two-hour-plus run time, what's another ten minutes?

That probably won't happen; Christopher Nolan is on vacation, apparently in outer space somewhere, because nobody can get a hold of him. And any kind of additional footage wouldn't be added without his supervision. Then again...the DVD is more than likely assembled or will be by mid-October, which means if there are extended scenes on the DVD, you could use some of that same material in the film.

How much would all of that mean financially? Assuming the studio does push The Dark Knight at Halloween and does add bonus material (could you think of a better movie to go that route?), you might make anywhere from $10 - $15 million, conservatively. I don't think demand to see the film has waned all that much. I mean, if you look at Pineapple Express, people only cared about that movie for one day. It's not even going to be in the top ten next weekend. But The Dark Knight is still competitive, even though it's in fewer theaters than the films that finished above it this weekend. Its per-screen average is still the second-highest among wide releases. If it were in 3,000 theaters instead of 2,500, it probably would've been number one this past weekend. No foolin'.

Yes, the audience will dwindle over the next six weeks, but so much of what we're seeing propel it now is repeat business anyway that an aggressive move like this is almost guaranteed to work. If they just expand its release on Halloween, the film will make an impact again. People will show up dressed as The Joker. But if they do it right, and at least make it seem like there's a compelling reason to watch the film on the big screen one more time, I think we could see this film top out at $550 million or more.

Colin Boyd |

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Reader Comments (7)

Merchandising, not a better way to push for costumes then to release it again around Halloween. Add in some deleted scenes like you said and people will go see it.
Also I think I will stay inside hiding from all the bad to probably way to accurate jokers walking around this Halloween.