Fearless Forecast - 'Eagle Eye' on the Prize

For the first time, The Dark Knight will be out of the top ten at the box office. And for the first time in 20 years, Kirk Cameron will be in. Yes, over two months after it debuted to record-throttling attendance figures, The Dark Knight is completely running out of steam. Still, $525 million, which is about where it will be at the end of this weekend, is more money than every film in the top ten this weekend will make during their theatrical runs...combined. As for Kirk Cameron, he's got some holy-rolling firefighter movie that should squeak in at ninth or tenth place. The last time his name was in the paper for box office glory was probably Like Father, Like Son with Dudley Moore. As for the films at the top of the food chain this weekend, I expect Eagle Eye to do well. I'm almost certain it won't get overwhelmingly positive reviews, and that could hurt it a little bit if people are on the fence, but for the 18 - 25 crowd, they're going to flock to see it, because this is really the only movie aimed at them, and it stars Shia LaBeouf, who is probably a bigger deal for that audience than we think. Eagle Eye will run away with the bulk of the money, and Nights at Rodanthe should drag in most of the rest. Audiences love these Nicholas Sparks movies, and they showed up in strong numbers to see Unfaithful a few years ago with Richard Gere and Diane Lane. Again, because it's the only movie aimed at its crowd - soccer moms and up - it should dominate that demographic. It's just not as big a demo for movies, that's all. The third new release that won't be helped by its reviews is Miracle at St. Anna, which also has a prohibitive time issue to deal with. Spike Lee's war flick is nearly three hours long. It's also not in enough theaters to do much damage. On the flip side, there is not a lot of audience retention among the movies currently in the top ten, so St. Anna can rise higher just because of that. The Top Five: 1 - Eagle Eye ($29 million)
2 - Nights in Rodanthe ($14.5 million)
3 - Lakeview Terrace ($8.5 million)
4 - Burn After Reading ($7 million)
5 - Miracle at St. Anna ($6 million)

Comments

[abower]

do you not think choke will break the top 5? i figured it would.

[Get The Big Picture]

No. It's only in 400 theaters. It probably won't make more than a couple million bucks this weekend.