Box Office - Second Verse, Same as the First

Thursday

01Jan2009

Box Office - Second Verse, Same as the First

Thursday, January 1, 2009 at 12:26PM

There are no new nationwide releases this weekend in theaters, meaning we're probably going to see a repeat of last week's top movies at the box office. Marley & Me has continued to do surprising business and will be over the $100 million by the end of the first weekend of 2009.

In fact, if we step back a little bit, everything in the top five is a little surprising. In addition to Marley, you've got Benjamin Button, which came out of the gates with a $39 million weekend and will probably be over $80 million by next Monday. That's good news for everyone involved, because three-hour David Fincher movies don't sound like box office gold. It still has a long way to go to make money, but as the only film like it at all on the schedule for months and months, the Golden Globes and the Oscar nominations will help create more buzz for it, keeping ticket sales afloat well into February.

Bedtime Stories was the movie most prognosticators had winning the Christmas weekend: It's a family flick, it's got Adam Sandler. But it opened in third place over the four-day holiday, and though it's beating Button on the weekdays so far this week, it probably won't overtake the film this weekend, simply because it's an opening weekend kind of curiosity. People still want to see Button and will find ways to do it.

Valkyrie has been a strong choice, as well, picking up $40 million in its first week. We chronicled the massive marketing campaign for this movie, which probably cost considerably more than the production. It is a gamble, because Valkyrie will have to get through this weekend before it even pays for just the advertising and promotion. Then it can shoulder the burden of trying to make money. International money will help, but people better love to hate some Hitler for a few more weeks.

And then there's Yes Man, which opened flat, but will come close to breaking even after this weekend. Hard to believe that it has a slim chance of making $100 million after its sub-$20 million debut. It's doubtful, but January is a pretty good time to make easy money because the new movies are usually awful. If it sits around $70 million after this weekend, it'll probably be around $83 million on January 12th. Is there enough left for Yes Man to go the distance?

The Top Five:
1 - Marley & Me - $28 million
2 - Benjamin Button - $22 million
3 - Bedtime Stories - $20 million
4 - Valkyrie - $14.5 million
5 - Yes Man - $11 million

Colin Boyd |

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