Box Office - A Good Opening Day in the Big n' Tall Section

What's happening here? Next you're going to tell me that the Arizona Cardinals have a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Despite overwhelmingly dour reviews, which has been a fair deterrent in the past couple of months against bad movies raking in cash, Paul Blart: Mall Cop seems poised to win the holiday weekend at the box office. The Kevin James comedy made just under $10 million on opening day, a number nobody saw coming, and now it looks like over the four-day weekend, the movie could earn over $35 million. That's astonishing. We had predicted a much lower number not just for that movie but also for Friday's second place finisher, the musical bio-pic Notorious. If we're looking at the weekend as counting Monday, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, then Notorious could generate roughly $30 million itself. Projections were lower for both films across the board; most estimates had My Bloody Valentine and Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino in the top two spots in some order, but while Valentine remained very competitive and could hit the $25 - $30 million range, too (it actually tied Notorious dollar for dollar, according to Box Office Mojo, but it's in 900 more theaters), Gran Torino stumbled to fourth place, with over $6 million on Friday. Dont' feel sorry for Clint; his new movie will be a $100 million earner with no real trouble. After this week, the film will have produced over $75 million, $65 million of that since January 9th. Joining Valentine, Hotel for Dogs was the only other movie in the top five that performed to expectations. By Monday, the family film could be in the $17 - $20 million ballpark. But if these movies are all performing well, what does that say about Bride Wars, which is going to struggle to hit $60 million? Wouldn't you think the draw of Kate Hudson and Anne Hathaway would suffice? I mean, if Kevin James might catch their 11-day total in seven fewer days, that's gotta say something, right? We'll offer a full recap tomorrow. I would expect Blart to cool off when word of mouth spreads, and I wouldn't be surprised if Valentine picks up some new viewers because of its generally favorable press. Torino has a chance to step it up today, a better movie-watching day for an older audience, but I doubt it has enough to overcome its current deficit.

Comments

[Allan]

Never overestimate the intelligence of the movie-going public!