The Big Picture Predicts the Oscar Nominations

In fewer than 24 hours, we'll know which movies, actors, directors, writers, and craftsmen (and craftswomen, or craftspeople, if you prefer) will be in the running for the Academy Awards. The nominations will be revealed early tomorrow morning, and while the Oscars don't always indicate what's "best" in a given year, it's about as close as you're ever going to get in a popular forum like that. There are a few potential nominees who already seem like winners in their categories - Heath Ledger, Slumdog Millionaire, Kate Winslet for something, and director Danny Boyle. But what about the other nominees in those categories, as well as those categories where it's a much closer race? We won't go through all 23 categories here, although we'll pick winners in each during Oscar week. But for our purposes, we'll try to accurately predict the nominees in the money categories, and check our work tomorrow. Best Picture:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire Honestly, I don't get Milk being in this caliber of films. I'd put Gran Torino ahead of it in the minds of voters because of its January wide release, even though I don't believe it's a fantastic film, either. Wall-E seems to be the odd film out in this scenario. The Dark Knight will get some nominations, but it won't win Best Picture. Best Actor:
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Richard Jenkins is clearly a dark horse pick, in a race that really only goes three deep. Rourke, Penn, or Langella will win, and it'll probably be Rourke. But Jenkins has enjoyed tremendous support all year, and even though he probably won't be the first pick on a lot of ballots, I think he'll be rewarded by his peers over Leonard DiCaprio and Brad Pitt. Those are really the strongest seven choices; I don't know who else you'd put in over Jenkins if not Leo or Pitt. Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road Though the winner is very much in doubt at this point, the nominees seem to have fallen into place. Melissa Leo for Frozen River was a popular choice about two months ago, and Cate Blanchett and Kristin Scott Thomas deserve notice, but I have a hard time believing they'll knock out Jolie's good work, which is probably the most vulnerable nominee in this group. Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk Eastwood could play spoiler here, at least to the chances of Nolan and/or Van Sant. But he's splitting the vote between the more popular Gran Torino and the better-directed Changeling. So I don't expect him getting in. Other options are Darren Aronosky, Stephen Daldry, and Mike Leigh, but I'm confident that four of these names will be announced tomorrow morning. Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire We know who's going to win, and we know that Downey and Hoffman are pretty much locks for nominations. As for Dev Patel, you can't have a good feeling about Slumdog without connecting with that performance, and if it's going to get all the love this year, Patel's in the running for a nomination. Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader This is probably Winslet's best chance to win an Oscar, so much so that she's pushed for a supporting role in a lead performance just so she doesn't cancel herself out with Revolutionary Road. One of the two Doubt actresses may not make it through the gauntlet, especially because that film has really cooled off in the past few weeks. If that happens, Taraji P. Henson could take Amy Adams' spot for Benjamin Button. We'll cover the nominations tomorrow morning.

Comments

[Lost Wilson]

"Though the winner is very much in doubt at this point, the nominees seem to have fallen into place."

The winner is "In Doubt"...hmmm. Sounds like a very Big Picture hint at who your pick is going to be. Plus the success of Mama Mia can't hurt Ms. Streep's chances at winning here either. The Academy likes to reward an accomplished year as much as they do one standout performance.

Plus, when many of her contemporaries are heading to the small screen o find work (Glen Close, Kyra Sedgwick, Gina Davis, Holly Hunter, et al...), Glen Close is still knocking it out of the park.

So, all said, the odds on favorite is definitely "In Doubt"!

[Lost Wilson]

Okay, I mean Meryl Streep hits it out of the park...Teach me to watch the Shield and type at the same time.

[D]

No predictions for screenplays?

[Michael]

Is there a film out called "In Doubt"? I think I missed that one.

[Get The Big Picture]

Michael -

I could predict the screenplays, yeah:

Original:
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
In Bruges
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Adapted:
Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog

[Lillian James]

Michael, Lost Wilson was referring to the fact that Colin Boyd typed "Though the winner is very much in doubt", which Lost thinks indicated Meryl Streep being the winner because she was in the movie Doubt. In Doubt. I'm not so sure that made sense. But I tried.

[Lost Wilson]

Thanks Lillian, you are correct. I am working on not being so dense. But it's hard.

[Slygui123]

I caught The Visitor when it was in theaters, and it was one of my favorite films of the whole year! Richard Jenkins from Six Feet Under was outstanding, and I really hope he wins the Oscar for best actor! The Visitor is now on DVD, and I definitely plan on getting a copy. If you haven’t seen the movie yet, you can find more info here:
thevisitorfilm.com