Fearless Forecast - 'Lycans' Rises Over 'Paul Blart'

The box office will be up and down for the next month or so. It will do well this weekend, then it's going to be blah in a week because of the Super Bowl. It'll pick back up for two straight weeks after that, both of which will be extremely competitive. Then it's Oscar time, and there's nothing out that weekend, becuase the studios want you at home on Sunday night. Two weeks later, it's Watchmen time, the first summer movie of the year, when you get right down to it. This weekend, there are a couple of new wide releases and a bunch of names you already know if you've been following the awards season at all. Most of the heavyweights that haven't enjoyed a big theatrical run are expanding this weekend, including the biggest movie in a decade. Because of its fan base, the prequel, Underworld: Rise of the Lycans, will probably open in first place. No Kate Beckinsale, no problem. It faces competition from Inkheart, based on the young adult adventure novel, but that one's not projected to go through the roof. Instead, if Underworld trips up, it would likely be a repeat by Paul Blart, last weekend's surprise winner. I don't expect that to happen, but it's a possibility. The Oscar movies are jumping their numbers significantly, with Frost/Nixon and Revolutionary Road expanding to over 800 theaters, and Slumdog Millionaire and The Wrestler going up to 1,000 and 400, respectively. Slumdog should capitalize the most, because of its status as the heavy Oscar favorite. The film has already made $61 million worldwide, and it's only played in eight other countries. It opens in India and several other territories this weekend, and with its expanded run in the U.S., it should definitely be on pace for a $100 million global run in just a handful of weeks. Then there's The Dark Knight. My pick was to expand the film greatly around Halloween. Put it in 1,000 theaters and let people come in their Joker costumes. Outside of the Oscar connection, this re-release makes no sense to me. The film is already the fastest-selling DVD ever. Who's going to pay to see something they've already paid to see and now own, as well? Plus, the plan to throw it in 250 theaters is rather pointless. Can you earn enough money to make it worthwhile? :
1 - Underworld ($22 million)
2 - Paul Blart ($17 million)
3 - Gran Torino ($14 million)
4 - Inkheart ($13 million)
5 - My Bloody Valentine ($11 million)

Comments

[Krystal]

Over 140 of the 250 theaters that The Dark Knight is expanding into are IMAX, which, in my opinion, is the format many people would prefer to see it in & weren't able to because there just aren't enough IMAX theaters to go around. Eagle Eye was released in IMAX at the end of Sept. when Dark Knight still seemed to be doing really well at the IMAX box office. Then Madagascar & The Day the Earth Stood Still had IMAX releases. Maybe that's why Warner Bros. moved Harry Potter to the summer, to clear up space for DK in the crowded IMAX market.

I saw DK once in the summer in IMAX & plus I got the DVD for Christmas. But I'm still planning to see it at least 2 more times in IMAX. Why? Because it's such an incredible immersive experience!!! I willing to bet that there's lots of people like me who still want to see it, at least once, in IMAX.

Maybe DK won't make that much money this 2nd time, but it should at least get the $3 million it needs to get into the Billion Dollar Club.

I think your idea to bring it back at Halloween is a good idea, but it should be on an annual basis. Or re-release it around Jan. 22 every year as a tribute/memorial to Heath Ledger, or something. Hopefully there are enough "bat fans" who would want to see it every year in IMAX. I would.