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Monday
05Jan2009

'Button,' 'Slumdog,' 'Dark Knight' Among Producers Guild Nominees

Now we're getting somewhere. The Producers Guild of America has released its list of nominees for Best Picture, Best Animated Feature, and Best Documentary.

Why is this significant? Because over the past 18 years, the PGA (or the other PGA if you're a golfer) has predicted the Best Picture nominees for the Academy Award with 75% accuracy. That means that three of these are surefire nominees and the other two have a real good chance. Here are the nominees for Best Picture, as revealed by Awards Daily:

Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight

Which of those would you throw out of your Best Picture category? Unless the Oscars goes really off the deep end, those are the five most likely contenders. There's room for Doubt, pardon the pun, and maybe Wall-E and/or The Wrestler, but that's about it. I don't think there's a strong chance that Slumdog, Button, or Frost/Nixon are falling out of the race.

The Dark Knight, while I'd be very surprised by an Oscar win in that category, is also hard to overlook. I think Milk is the weakest of the five films, for whatever that's worth, but I'll admit that I'm in the minority there.

But you can certainly expect three of these - and maybe all five - to be announced as Best Picture nominees come January 22nd.

Here are the other nominees:

Best Animated Feature:
Wall-E
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda

Best Documentary:
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
Standard Operating Procedure

There are no surprises at all in those categories, either.

Another reason for the PGA's significance is that these people actually vote for Academy Awards, unlike the Globes voters or the overwhelming majority of film critics. I would say, at this moment, Slumdog still has the best odds, but Benjamin Button is proving to be more than just an extravagance. The film has played better with critics than a lot of people imagined it would, and audiences have voiced their support, too.

Do you think they left anything out? Keep in mind, to put something in that list of five, you have to take something away.

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Reader Comments (2)

top five looks pretty good to me
would have liked to have seen waltz with bashir in the animated category
and maybe religulous in the documentary category

Tuesday, January 6, 2009 | Unregistered Commentermad max

I think Milk is the weakest link in the bunch.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterKim

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