Friday
Jan092009
Friday, January 9, 2009 at 6:24AM Our Golden Globes Picks Feature a Big Upset
With the Golden Globes on the way this weekend, we thought we'd take a crack at predicting the winners. We're normally pretty good in that regard, but that doesn't take much or mean much.
So here are our picks, with a little commentary:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire The momentum is not artificial. People genuinely seem affected by the film, and it's exceedingly well-made. In terms of its production, only Benjamin Button is more adventurous among the nominees, but despite being a great love story conceptually, it's not nearly the love story Slumdog is in practice, nor is anything at all in 2008 as life-affirming. Best Picture (Musical or Comedy):
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: In Bruges? I suppose Mamma Mia! would be a popular choice to win, but it's so clearly inferior to everything else in the category. We know Globes voters loved In Bruges, because it picked up three nominations, but Focus did zero to promote the film when it was out and isn't exactly bending over backwards for it now. The truth is, you could argue for everything in this category. I'm just picking an upset. Best Actress (Drama):
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Anne Hathaway The Princess of Genovia gets respect, as Globes voters pick her over her Devil Wears Prada co-star, because they realize they can always give Streep the award for Mamma Mia! Why they'd want to is their own business. Best Actor (Drama):
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Should Win: Frank Langella
Will Win: Sean Penn I think you can discount Leo and Pitt here and focus primarily on Penn and Mickey Rourke. My preference is Frank Langella, because I thought he did an amazing job building a human being out of someone so publicly dehumanized for 35 years. But the rally has been for Rourke, although I think his history and Penn's previous critical acclaim will push it towards Sean. Best Actress (Musical or Comedy):
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Will Win: Meryl Streep Even though three of the five actresses are foreign and this is the Hollywood Foreign Press, they have to vote for the biggest star of the group, I'm afraid. I loved Hawkins and think it's one of the best performances of the entire year...but she didn't sing. Why on Earth the Globes still has the musical category, I have no idea. But Streep will get votes. It's either this or Mamma Mia! wins the Best Picture, and nobody wants that, do they? Best Actor (Musical or Comedy):
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
James Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey Should Win: Colin Farrell
Will Win: Colin Farrell Here's why I'm picking the In Bruges upset in the Best Picture race. Look at this category. Bardem is a glorified supporting role. Franco is just an odd choice all the way around, not that he wasn't very good. Hoffman's fine and all, but it's a little tired. And with two nominees from the same movie, you'd think they'd cancel each other out. But I don't see that happening. It's the strongest comedy and Farrell's performance is the most unique and inspired one in the category. And that momentum will carry the film to a win for Best Picture, at least in my warped little mind. Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: Penelope Cruz I thought Cruz was better in Elegy, but she's winning plenty of acclaim for her work in Vicky Cristina at the end of the year. Kate Winslet's a dark horse, although that may be overstating it a bit; she is Kate Winslet. And while I think the heat is off Doubt right now, Davis' work was astonishing for the short time it was on screen. Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger There's no doubt who wins this award. Nor should there be. Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road Should Win: David Fincher
Will Win: Danny Boyle I've got a new respect for David Fincher's films because I now realize they're even more complicated to pull off than they appear to be. Benjamin Button was the hardest movie to direct all year long, and nobody else in the category could've done it...however, he has a better shot at an Oscar than a Globe. They'll go for the international flavor of Slumdog, not that Danny Boyle is undeserving. Far from it, in fact.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire The momentum is not artificial. People genuinely seem affected by the film, and it's exceedingly well-made. In terms of its production, only Benjamin Button is more adventurous among the nominees, but despite being a great love story conceptually, it's not nearly the love story Slumdog is in practice, nor is anything at all in 2008 as life-affirming. Best Picture (Musical or Comedy):
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona Should Win: In Bruges
Will Win: In Bruges? I suppose Mamma Mia! would be a popular choice to win, but it's so clearly inferior to everything else in the category. We know Globes voters loved In Bruges, because it picked up three nominations, but Focus did zero to promote the film when it was out and isn't exactly bending over backwards for it now. The truth is, you could argue for everything in this category. I'm just picking an upset. Best Actress (Drama):
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Anne Hathaway The Princess of Genovia gets respect, as Globes voters pick her over her Devil Wears Prada co-star, because they realize they can always give Streep the award for Mamma Mia! Why they'd want to is their own business. Best Actor (Drama):
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler Should Win: Frank Langella
Will Win: Sean Penn I think you can discount Leo and Pitt here and focus primarily on Penn and Mickey Rourke. My preference is Frank Langella, because I thought he did an amazing job building a human being out of someone so publicly dehumanized for 35 years. But the rally has been for Rourke, although I think his history and Penn's previous critical acclaim will push it towards Sean. Best Actress (Musical or Comedy):
Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Will Win: Meryl Streep Even though three of the five actresses are foreign and this is the Hollywood Foreign Press, they have to vote for the biggest star of the group, I'm afraid. I loved Hawkins and think it's one of the best performances of the entire year...but she didn't sing. Why on Earth the Globes still has the musical category, I have no idea. But Streep will get votes. It's either this or Mamma Mia! wins the Best Picture, and nobody wants that, do they? Best Actor (Musical or Comedy):
Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell - In Bruges
James Franco - Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey Should Win: Colin Farrell
Will Win: Colin Farrell Here's why I'm picking the In Bruges upset in the Best Picture race. Look at this category. Bardem is a glorified supporting role. Franco is just an odd choice all the way around, not that he wasn't very good. Hoffman's fine and all, but it's a little tired. And with two nominees from the same movie, you'd think they'd cancel each other out. But I don't see that happening. It's the strongest comedy and Farrell's performance is the most unique and inspired one in the category. And that momentum will carry the film to a win for Best Picture, at least in my warped little mind. Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader Should Win: Viola Davis
Will Win: Penelope Cruz I thought Cruz was better in Elegy, but she's winning plenty of acclaim for her work in Vicky Cristina at the end of the year. Kate Winslet's a dark horse, although that may be overstating it a bit; she is Kate Winslet. And while I think the heat is off Doubt right now, Davis' work was astonishing for the short time it was on screen. Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight Should Win: Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger There's no doubt who wins this award. Nor should there be. Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road Should Win: David Fincher
Will Win: Danny Boyle I've got a new respect for David Fincher's films because I now realize they're even more complicated to pull off than they appear to be. Benjamin Button was the hardest movie to direct all year long, and nobody else in the category could've done it...however, he has a better shot at an Oscar than a Globe. They'll go for the international flavor of Slumdog, not that Danny Boyle is undeserving. Far from it, in fact.
Reader Comments (13)
The should will/will win is insulting...those voters choose a winner it doesn't mean someone is better from another...only idiots critics can say that.
Blah blah blah. And actually, if they choose a winner, it does mean they think one is better than another. How else would that work?
Colin, I appreciate the Should/Will win arrangement. After all that is why I come to your site because I want to hear what my favorite CRITIC thinks! Keep up the good work
Kate Winslet must win either in her two nominations. She's brilliant in the two movies.
Her best shot is Supporting. Best Actress is really down to Streep and Hathaway.
I'm praying for Kate Winslet to win Best Supporting Actress for 'The Reader'
After watching Angelina react to Hathaway's win at the Critics Choice, I'm routing for Anne Hathaway to put away another award for her great role in Rachel Getting Married.
How did Angelina react? Was she appalled or something? She didn't have much of a chance...
I don't see the argument against "shpuld win/will win." "Should win" merely translates to "if I had a vote..." and "will win" is analasys based on past voting trends by those who vote. What's the problem there?