Fearless Forecast - 'Paranormal Activity' vs. 'Saw VI'

The race for box office supremacy this weekend is limited to two movies intended to scare the hell out of you. One is the still climbing Paranormal Activity, which earned $20 million over the weekend in under 1,000 theaters and spent Monday and Tuesday literally less than $20,000 away from being the number one movie in the country. It will expand again this weekend, aiding its chances to finally take home top honors after a month in theaters. The other candidate is, of course, Saw VI. There is some similarity between the Saw series and Paranormal Activity, at least with the first Jigsaw flick. It was low-budget, showed audiences something new, and reaped the rewards of a well-placed release. But since 2004, there hasn't been any competition standing across the ring from Saw, so how will it handle it now, especially since it's so long in the tooth? I'm going to go with Paranormal Activity, because I think the odds are better that it pulls audience from Saw VI than the other way around. If you're inclined to see the sixth Saw movie, you've seen some of the others; you aren't coming into this franchise as a newbie at this stage. So with something like Paranormal opening in smaller markets finally, this really is the moment for horror fans to be a part of, not another Saw flick. It'll be close, but that's the way I see it. None of the other new releases, Astro Boy, The Vampire's Assistant, or Amelia, stand much of a chance of hitting the top five, because the three also-rans this week will still do decent business. Where the Wild Things Are is sinking pretty quickly in the daily box office, but it should bounce back over the weekend as counterprogramming. There's still life left in Couple's Retreat, but not much, and Law Abiding Citizen will fare pretty well, too, and based on its surface similarities to the structure of a Saw movie, it might eat away at the horror staple's audience, too. The Top Five:
1 - Paranormal Activity ($23 million)
2 - Saw VI ($22 million)
3 - Where the Wild Things Are ($17 million)
4 - Law Abiding Citizen ($12 million)
5 - Couple's Retreat ($9 million)