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Wednesday
28Oct2009

Box Office - 'This Is It' Isn't Exactly It

DateWednesday, October 28, 2009 at 7:55PM
There's a school of thought that puts Michael Jackson's This Is It among the biggest openings in movie history. AEG, the concert promoter which owned the rights before going into business with Sony on the worldwide distribution, estimated several weeks ago that the documentary could make $250 million in five days. That's obviously a bold statement, but This Is It should play to some packed houses, at least at the very first.

Tuesday night, the movie made about $2.2 million domestically in paid sneak previews, with another $10 - $12 estimated for today, its official opening, according to The Los Angeles Times. I'm no genius, but I can't see how 10 times 5 equals anything near 250. The Times wouldn't call the opening a failure, but when you compare it to the all-time great Wednesdays...it's a failure. Especially with the the crowing about its potential.

If the movie reaches $15 million, which is probably the ceiling, then This Is It will be the 18th biggest Wednesday ever. In order to reach that $250 million number in five days, this would have to make conservatively four times that much, or Transformers 2 numbers. Won't happen.

So what does a $10 - $12 million opening day mean? Between Wednesday and Monday, probably around $50 million, give or take a few. It won't do any business to speak of on Thursday, Saturday is Halloween, and Sundays are almost always the softest day of the weekend. Friday could be big, but that's really the only opportunity left to explode at the box office. It's more evidence, as I've pointed out before, that pre-sale tickets don't equal new tickets. Those are just seats that already exist. In this case, it's based on fewer theaters (and therefore fewer showtimes) than Harry Potter and Transformers, this year's leaders in that category. All it really points to is moviegoers making an appointment to see the film.

However, This Is It will still be quite profitable, which is good news if you're Joe Jackson. If Sony really keeps it in theaters for two weeks and two weeks only, then the movie might make $100 million in the US, but the real money remains to be mined overseas.

AuthorColin Boyd | | in , | Print ArticlePrint Article | | CommentPost a Comment |

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