Fearless Forecast: A Default Win by 'Couples Retreat'

This weekend is easy to predict. Couples Retreat will be the new number one movie, and since it's the only wide release, how is that at all surprising? Zombieland will fall to second, and if you saw last weekend's box office numbers, you'd just rinse and repeat from there. The only real questions are how well the heavily promoted Retreat will do and how strong Zombieland will be in its second weekend? If I had to guess - and I kind of put myself in the position every week of doing precisely that - I'd say that the new Vince Vaughn comedy won't do the kind of business the marketing machine would like. I think it's going to fall short of the numbers he threw on the board last year for Four Christmases, which co-starred America's Sweetheart. Make no mistake: This movie is everywhere, and Universal knew it would have this little window all to itself. But can it do $35 - $40 million? I don't get that vibe. I think it's more apt to do business that resembles He's Just Not That Into You, another PG-13 ensemble rom-com. Even though it might not have any Prince Charming endings like Into You, it's still a movie intended for couples rather than dudes. If it were aiming for guys, it would be rated R. The reviews for Couples Retreat have been overwhelmingly bad, and that has a bigger impact on comedies than anything else...which leads us to Zombieland, one of the best reviewed wide releases of 2009. The daily numbers this week have been pretty encouraging, so I don't see a 50% drop, which would be about typical for a movie without great reviews or strong Monday - Thursday box office. It won't be enough to repeat, because the film is still in a niche and there are people who will never see a zombie picture, but it should have a great second weekend. The other lingering storyline is what Paranormal Activity will do in its third well-publicized stanza. It's already made $1 million, most of that coming from midnight showings, and now it's finally going to be on a nationwide stage. It should be in even wider release next weekend. Can it crack the top ten? I sure think so. Paranormal hit a little over half a million last weekend, placing it just outside the top 20. It shouldn't take more than $3 million to be in the top ten this weekend, and although I don't have the official theatrical numbers handy (I think it's around 100), I do know Paranormal is broadening its showings beyond 12:01am. So even if it didn't expand into new cities at all, it would have a chance to make at least three times as much because of its availability. Couple that with three times as many theaters and you're realistically looking at over five times the potential audience, if not more. If it keeps the momentum it's had to this point, Paranormal Activity could be on the lower end of the top ten. The Top Five:
1 - Couples Retreat ($25.5 million)
2 - Zombieland ($16 million)
3 - Chance of Meatballs ($11 million)
4 - Toy Story/Toy Story 2 ($8 million)
5 - Surrogates ($4 million)

Comments

[Krystal]

Word-of-mouth seems to be working for Paranormal Activity. From Tues. to Wed. its box office jumped 22% & its Wed. theater average was $3000. Last weekend the average was $16,000. It's moving into 159 theaters so would just need under $19,000 to get the $3M. Wonder if it'll be the next Blair Witch Project?!!

[Get The Big Picture]

Really, 159 houses? That's more than the website shows. If that's true, then I'm a bigger believe that it can jump into the top ten. I mean, keep in mind, in 33 theaters it was number 20.

[Krystal]

I got the 159 figure from Box Office Mojo. Incredibly its Thurs. BO has jumped almost 80% to well over a $5K theater average. At the movie's website the demands are closing in on 1 million, which must be partly driving the strong word-of-mouth. Blair Witch Project 2.0 here we go!