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Friday
20Nov2009

Box Office: 'New Moon' Breaks $20 Million at Midnight

We knew New Moon would be headed for a great big weekend, but this big? Even that's a little surprsing. Deadline Hollywood cites sources from other studios saying that the Twilight sequel has debuted in the mid-$20 million range for midnight showings, slightly better than Harry Potter, and substantially more than The Dark Knight last summer.

Dark Knight set a towering 12:01 mark at $18.4 million, which lasted a year. Half-Blood Prince raised the bar to $22.2 million, and the estimates for New Moon are about a million bucks ahead of that. "It could break every existing record for Friday," one executive claimed. "But Saturday will be a different story."

And indeed, it probably will be. Twilight slumped 40% in just its second day, and dipped another 40% on Sunday, meaning its day three tally was only about one-third of the Friday high. Our own estimate for New Moon takes on a similar model, but the raw numbers are much higher - $51 million today, $31 million tomorrow, $18.5 on Sunday. Again, that's just our estimate, and for the Friday totals, I lumped midnight screenings in with the regular show times.

It comes out to $100 million or so, and I would caution anyone looking at a potential record-breaking performance at midnight as an indication that New Moon will break The Dark Knight's weekend mark to remember that Harry Potter slowed down immediately, and that The Dark Knight is a statistical anomaly from jump, with incredible reviews that widened the demographic appeal of the film, the curiosity about Heath Ledger's final performance, and that there had never been a movie that steamrolled its way to multiple hundreds of millions of dollars as quickly.

There can be an argument for maybe $115 million or so, but New Moon is not getting much closer to $158 million in three days. Saturday, as that executive point out, is the critical day. If the film doesn't sacrifice over half its audience, then it will be a very big deal. If it does, then the one-day total will really be the only feather in its cap.

Reader Comments (5)

Does this series have the legs to go the distance, or will the final installments be presented as movies of the week on basic cable? If they continue to be bad I can only imagine that there will be backlash at some point, won't there?

Friday, November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterWill

Will, the franchise will finish up, I can guarantee it. The budgets for these movies are pretty small ($37 million for the first movie, $50-60 mil for "New Moon") and the profits are huge. "New Moon" will likely make $200 million in the US at least, which is fantastic for a movie that cost maybe a third of what real "blockbusters" cost to make. That's before factoring in worldwide receipts, DVD sales, TV rights, merchandising deals, etc.

Even if there's a backlash, it won't hit until "Eclipse" comes out in June. IF that disappoints & makes roughly half in total ticket sales (for the sake of this let's say $200 million worldwide) on that $60 million budget, it's still a hit. That'll be enough for Summit Entertainment to put "Breaking Dawn" into production and not be worried that they'll lose money (because they won't). It's kinda like the "Saw" series on a larger scale;the studio is still making money even if the budget to profit margins are getting smaller.

Friday, November 20, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterVince

I agree with nearly everything you said, Vince. I didn't know the budget was that high, probably because I never checked since it was going to be an enormous hit, anyway. The only thing I'll disagree with is that Summit would be disappointed if this film or the next only did $200 million worldwide because that studio doesn't have anything else going for it to make up the difference, the way Fox and Sony and Warners can always back off a bad Eddie Murphy movie because another tentpole is right around the corner.

I don't know what the number would be to make a big profit - probably around $200 million, you're right about that - but given the studio's lack of other major properties at this stage, I think they'd want to see the number significantly higher and might even plan for it.

Friday, November 20, 2009 | Registered CommenterColin Boyd

there will be no backlash. i went to the opening night show and the majority of the crowd applauded the film when it finished. the ladies really fell for all the eye candy. i've never been to this sort of big female event, and it was quite the experience. it was so different watching this sort of movie with this demographic compared to the fanboy demographic of comic-book, sci-fi, and fantasy movies. any fanboy should go just once to enjoy the funny expereince. seriously, these fangirls are even crazier than the fanboys. no exaggeration.

Saturday, November 21, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterandrew

sorry if my last comments seemed sexist but it's the truth. went to lots of opening nights for comic movies (i.e. dark knight) and there were no stampedes to get into the auditorium first like last night.

Saturday, November 21, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterandrew

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