Fearless Forecast: More Millions For 'New Moon'

Expect another big victory for New Moon at the box office this weekend, and in general, expect a strong Thanksgiving five-day frame bolstered by several films. The Twilight sequel will reign again in large part because there's simply nothing else in theaters capable of making about $75 million in five days. Among the new releases, Old Dogs will probably make the most money. I say probably because it looks like the most vulnerable, as well. In addition to vying for the family audience that might also see Christmas Carol, Planet 51, The Blind Side, and maybe even The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Old Dogs looks like a non-event in a field full of just the opposite. However, at every screening I've attended where the trailer has been shown, Old Dogs gets laughs, so it will certainly have a good weekend, but it will probably be stuck in third place. The Blind Side should repeat as the second-place film, and it might not even lose much of its audience, thanks to the more available holiday crowd. The performance has been something of a surprise and all exit polling indicates this film is a major favorite for moviegoers, so it's sure to get plenty of word-of-mouth activity this weekend. The top five should be completed by 2012 and Ninja Assassin. There's a slim chance Mr. Fox cracks the top five or that Precious finds its way back up the charts this weekend, but they're both longshots. As for New Moon, it will sail past $200 million this weekend, beating the total performance of Twilight a year ago. How long can it last? We discussed it briefly last weekend, and $300 million is almost inevitable. Factor it like this: If it does $70 million more this weekend and loses about 50% of that during next week and then roughly matches that weekly total the following weekend - that's $70 million on top of about $225 million by the end of this weekend. I don't think we'll be able to estimate where the final numbers will be, though, until we see what another weekend looks like. But you can bet it will be the second-highest-grossing movie this year. The Top Five (Five-Day Totals):
1 - New Moon ($76 million)
2 - The Blind Side ($20 million)
3 - Old Dogs ($18.5 million)
4 - 2012 ($16 million)
5 - Ninja Assassin ($14 million)

Comments

[Vince]

Just my gut feeling (which is often as wrong as it is right), but I think you're low on "Blind Side"and "Old Dogs" ("Ninja" could break out, but I think it'll do 'Hitman" numbers more likely). "Blind Side" has excellent word of mouth, so it'll drop a little less, maybe around $25 million for 3 days.

"Old Dogs" is the only straight-up comedy of the season, it has solid family appeal (for those not bitten by the Cullen's tale), and it's part of the lucrative "Disney presents a comedy where bumbling man-children take care of real children" genre. I feel that it'll least ring up $30 million over 5 days (and it could go even higher).

"Christmas Carol" will hold up better now that "Christmas" is finally approaching, "Fantastic Mr. Fox" could but probably won't put up much of a fight this weekend & here's hoping that "Precious" rakes in the cash this week.

[Nelson]

never underestimate the fox!