Oscars 2010: What We Think We Know

Wednesday

04Nov2009

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 9:09PM

The Academy Award nominations aren't due for another 90 days or so, and most of the movies that figure to be prominent nominees this year still haven't been released. Still, a few movies seem to be solidifying their claims and others are falling or have fallen by the wayside. So let's review the way it's shaping up.

There are ten Best Picture nominees, and as much as I don't like the idea in practice, at this point, that's where most of the mystery is: What the hell are they going to do with all the extra room in that category? A few films seem sure to be nominated based on their reception or perception. Invictus probably has the best odds right now, with Nine, Up in the Air, and Precious all in the discussion, plus two films that have already been in theaters, Up and The Hurt Locker. Based on what we've heard about these movies, it would be a shame to have any of them left out of the five-picture race, although one would be.

However, they don't have to be and won't be dismissed. With ten nominees, we have room for such possibilities as Avatar, A Serious Man, possibly An Education, The Lovely Bones, and maybe District 9 and/or Inglourious Basterds. But none of those, with the exception of Basterds (because everyone's seen it) balances the scales with the others. So is it better to leave out great films or let in ones that may not be?

Obviously, if Up gets in the Best Picture race, Best Animated becomes completely superfluous; if it doesn't win there, then shouldn't the film that does be up for Best Picture instead of Up?

The Best Director category gets really hard to figure with ten picture nominees, because only five filmmakers will be nominated, so at least half the Best Picture field won't be in the running for that award. Eastwood, Jason Reitman, Rob Marshall, and Kathryn Bigelow have all been mentioned as strong potential candidates, and that leaves room for Tarantino or Lee Daniels for Precious. I'd be surprised if three of the four names above aren't in the mix, and I'd be equally surprised if Tarantino is, although he has a damn good chance of winning Best Original Screenplay.

As is the case with Best Director, the rest of the categories are unchanged. Best Actor seems to be the most wide open it has been in years. George Clooney, based on festival reaction, is the leading candidate right now for Up in the Air. I'm not entirely certain we'll ever see Clooney win that award, although this could be the year if it were to happen. He's very good, better than most people think, but it just looks way to easy and he seldom takes huge risks as an actor. Daniel Day-Lewis just won the damn thing two years ago, Morgan Freeman is in with Invictus, but we'll see how it goes there. So there's three.

Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker would be my pick, but I don't think we should expect a lot of victories for The Hurt Locker, even though it may be rewarded with a bunch of nominations. We still have one slot to fill, and I don't know where that goes.

Best Actress, likewise, has a few surefire nominees. Meryl Streep was all but counted out when Julie & Julia was released because it's not up to her usual standards, but she seems to be picking up momentum for the same performance now. But can she win for a less weighty role after all the wonderful performances that have been overlooked in her career? Carey Mulligan for The Education is this year's critics' darling. She's a lock.

Gabby Sidibe should get nominated for Precious, and The Lovely Bones could give Saoirse Ronan her second nomination before she could even get a driver's license. (This seems as good a time as any to say I'm not buying what The Lovely Bones is selling right now. Maybe it's great, but I don't get that sense at all.)

The supporting categories are almost always the most interesting of the major awards, because that's where the surprises usually are. They're not always good surprises (*cough* Cuba Gooding of Fargo's William H. Macy), but you don't see a lot of shockers in Best Picture or Best Actor or Actress. That's one of the reasons I said a Zach Galifianakis nomination wasn't too crazy, especially given how empty that field is right now.

We'll list the moment's most likely nominees and you can see how much some categories seem set in stone to a large degree and how fluid some of the others are.

Best Picture (ten nominees)
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Rob Marshall - Nine
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabby Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Best Actor
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invictus
Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds

Colin Boyd |

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Academy Awards,

Invictus,

Nine,

Precious,

The Hurt Locker,

Up,

Up in the Air |

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6 Comments |

Reader Comments (6)

I'd put "Basterds" and "A Serious Man" in the mix for best picture. Also "An Education," but I'm somewhat doubtful that'll happen. You're right, it's a weird year. Is there a front-runner for anything? "Up in the Air" is really good, and I suspect it'll get a boatload of nominations. But anything else? "In the Loop" is great, but that seems like kind of a long shot as well. Maybe there's a "Slumdog Millionaire" -- late release, everybody loves it -- in the mix of stuff yet to be released.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 |

Bill

Uhm, what about Public Enemies?!

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 |

Wickedlycool

Public Enemies has no shot at anything at all. I'll drink gasoline if it gets nominated for a major award.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009 |

Colin Boyd

I'd love to see 500 days of summer win for original screenplay. And at least a best actor nom for Rockwell in moon.

Thursday, November 5, 2009 |

I'd agree with KP on both accounts, and with 10 spots 500 days might sneek in there too... An education is all but guaranteed a spot as well I'd guess. I totally agree with the problems with both the animated and foreign film categories because they become unneccesary if any of those films crossover to best picture. Either restrict them to their categories (not a great idea) or eliminate the ani/foreign all together (Lives of Others was probably the best picture of that year and should have won the grand prize). I'd like to see Sharlto Copley get a nod for best actor, his work was tremendous in D9, what a great character and portrayal. Lastly I'd say you got the directors right but I'd assume that Lee Daniels is also a sure thing (and we might see Bigelow bumped for something else). With 10 pics too bad Shutter Island is coming out...

Thursday, November 5, 2009 |

anybody

I think Education may be peaking too early. Carey Mulligan's a lock, but she's kind of overshadowing the film. I don't know that it can hold up against all that November-December competition as well as she can in a less eventful category. (500 Days) has a shot, but its seat at the big table is not reserved. Screenplay? Absolutely. Best Picture? ...We'll see. I'd have it in my personal top ten, though.

Animated, documentary, and foreign language categories all suffer from the expansion, precisely for the reason you and I both said, anybody. And I concur with Lives of Others. One of the absolute best films of the decade.

Thursday, November 5, 2009 |

Colin Boyd

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