Fearless Forecast - 'The Princess' and the Box Office

It should be a big weekend for Disney, with its new traditional animation entry, The Princess and the Frog, expanding into thousands of theaters. Yeah, it's expanding. The film played for a couple weekends at exclusive engagements in New York and Los Angeles and even though it was in two theaters, the hand-drawn 'toon made almost $3 million. So now it's nationwide, as ZZ Top predicted, and it should have a fairly easy time of it this weekend. I don't think we'll see a hand-drawn movie ever do the kinds of numbers Disney gets when it releases a Pixar movie, but this should still do pretty well over the next three days and throughout the holiday movie season, which technically extends through January because new releases in the first month of the year tend to come and go rather quickly. That leaves plenty of money on the table for films like this. For example, last year, Gran Torino was released on the second weekend in December and it eventually went on to make over $145 million, the most money ever for a film starring and/or was directed by a dude in his late 70s. Because of its limited release, most of that money came in January. Speaking of Eastwood, his Invictus arrives this weekend, too. It won't do Torino-type numbers. But it will get off to a rosy start this weekend, and depending on how the message plays, this may be another sizable hit for Eastwood. I kind of doubt it, because sports movies (which people will see this is as, at least in part) aren't gold mines in the US, and this one's about a sport most Americans don't understand. Invictus is about a lot more than that, of course, but it will need terrific audience reactions in the next ten days to work some magic into 2010. And while Warner Bros. is sure to push it for a ton of awards, the studio has made its money for the fourth quarter, thanks to The Blind Side. That film should do another $12 - $15 million this weekend to get to the cusp of $150 million in 24 days. For the third time this year, joining Gran Torino and The Hangover, Warners wins the "Nobody Saw That Coming" award. Those three movies will be responsible for at least $600 million in US receipts, none of them had a budget over $40 million, and all of them pleased audiences and critics. New Moon should take fourth place almost by default, but it's clearly on its last legs here at home. It's doing incredible business overseas, too, by the way. The Top Five:
1 - The Princess and the Frog ($25.5 million)
2 - Invictus ($14 million)
3 - The Blind Side ($12.5 million)
4 - New Moon ($7 million)
5 - A Christmas Carol ($5 million)

Comments

[Cary]

I'm an avid reader of this blog. Usually, I think you're right on with your predictions. But, this time...I think you missed it in a Paul Blart-esque way. I think Princess and the Frog is easily going to do $40-50 million. I also think Invictus will do much bigger business than you're projecting--especially in light of the performance of Blind Side within a similar sports/inspirational film genre. Frankly, this is a movie weekend I've been waiting for for sometime, and I get the sense talking to people that I'm not alone.

Only time will tell...

[D. Bethel]

I'm really interested in seeing how well this movie does, too. In my opinion, a few of the last few Disney feature animated films were actually really strong (Lilo & Stitch, Emperor's New Groove), though they were unfortunately mixed in with the high idea/mediocre follow-through flicks (Atlantis, Treasure Planet, the latter has some of the most beautiful traditional animation ever put to film) and the terrible (Home on the Range, the final flick before they closed down the Feature Animation department).

Now that Pixar honcho, John Lasseter, is the brain behind the newly reopened department I have high hopes for the future of Disney animated features. Two things bother me, though. First, they brought back many people that were a part of the final days of Disney (admittedly, many of these people were also part of the Disney animated Renaissance in the late 80s and early 90s). Hopefully, Lasseter can keep these guys from grinding the story into the ground like they did before. Secondly, even if Disney is ready to bring back traditional animation, is the public ready for it? I firmly believed that 2D animation was dying because people were telling terrible stories, but many were saying that it was sliding beneath the slick promise of computer animated films. I honestly don't know which is true. I just hope Disney stops pushing about the triumphant return of Disney animation––that died for a reason––and, instead, pimp the fact that this flick and those in the future are being brought to you by the minds at Pixar. At this moment, Pixar has a much more reputable name than Disney does in the realm of animation and to broadcast and take advantage of that reputation would only be a boon to business, I think.

[Vince]

Going with my gut feeling here, but I think that "Princess and the Frog" will upon to 30+ plus - I'm calling for $34 million for the three day, about what "Enchanted" did a couple years back. Although the latter movie was a bit of a different beast (live action w/ some animation vs. a completely hand-drawn animated movie), it still played off the Disney "Princess" theme that has worked time and time again for the studio.

Although it's geared more to girls (unlike other animated films, where the audience is spread out a bit more), it should be able to hold well for the next month or so. It could do around $130 million when all is said and done, which is a far cry from Disney's heyday, but still great for this type of film.

[Get The Big Picture]

A couple points I leaned on for this week's predictions:

Invictus is a sports drama. Only seven have made $100 million, and three of them are Rocky movies. The Blind Side tops the list, but it's football, and there's no political message. That leaves Remember the Titans (also football) and Seabiscuit, a much bigger hit than it probably was expected to be. If anything, I might be a little high on the Invictus projection.

Miracle - a familiar story and a feel-good flick - started around $20 million and made about $65. I think Invictus is more likely to perform like that, probably with a higher total because it will be around a while longer due to awards season. But I can't see it rising too far above $100 million, in part because Eastwood isn't on screen. His last four movies as an actor averaged over $90 million; his last four that he only directed averaged $42 million.

Princess and the Frog might do a little better than I'm thinking, but I doubt I'm off by 70 or 80%. It will also have a good life for two or three months, but I'd be really surprised if it made over $30 - $32 million this weekend. Lilo & Stitch, a summer movie, was the last hand-drawn Disney movie to make $35 million in a weekend. Since 1995 (when Toy Story changed everything), the only other "traditional" Disney animated film that can say that is Tarzan, and Disney made hand-drawn films until 2004.