Easy-to-Follow Updated Best Picture Rundown

We showed you a chart recently that features the way certain insiders would vote for the Oscars if they had votes to cast. Movie City News has now expanded its coverage to include the major categories, and we'll have more on that in a second, but first, see the latest accounting of the nominees, and pay attention to the jump by Avatar. I don't know how much of that is a honeymoon for James Cameron, but I would suspect that's part of it. Even still, these aren't real Oscar voters, and Avatar is well behind Up in the Air, which has solidified its lead in this unofficial voting. I was right about Precious peaking too early, and I don't think it's a major nominee outside of Mo'nique, who will probably win Best Supporting Actress in March. But it appears, if the gurus are reliable, that this is probably a two-film race between Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker. The advantage Hurt Locker has is that it's more serious and that it would honor Kathryn Bigelow, who has been at this for much longer than Jason Reitman. In Up in the Air's corner is just about everything else, politically speaking. It's an interesting race, but even with ten nominees, I think only Avatar or Inglourious Basterds could beat either one of those films. Bigelow has the edge for Best Director, and I'm fairly confident it's hers to lose. First female director to win the Oscar is a great story, even better that you can make the case she's more than earned it. If she loses, it would be to Reitman or - in a strange twist - her ex-husband, the King of the World. They get along, I guess, but still a first to have exes in the Director category. In the guru voting, Jeff Bridges, Mo'nique, and the screenplays for The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air all have comfortable leads in their categories. Christoph Waltz is currently tied with Stanley Tucci, the only truly worthwhile thing about The Lovely Bones, I'm sorry to say. But that category will be recalibrated soon enough, especially since it is probably the only trophy Tarantino's comeback film will take home. Let's discuss the categories: I like Carey Mulligan for Best Actress, and she's a vote behind Meryl Streep. Tough to keep denying Streep her third victory, although I don't think she deserves it for Julie & Julia. Bridges I have no problem with, and I expect him to win what is ostensibly a career achievement award in a year where there is no true Best Actor. If Hurt Locker picks up the screenplay and directing awards, and if Clooney and Kendrick don't win the acting awards, which is the way it's pacing, do the voters keep Up in the Air as Best Picture? Tougher to justify, of course, but similar things have happened before. It will still win Adapted Screenplay in a runaway, but a win by Clooney or Reitman would sure improve its case for the big prize.