Box Office - 'Avatar' Debut Better Than Estimated

We reported yesterday that the estimates for James Cameron's Avatar were very strong, if not monumental enough for the record books, but it turns out the new film did just barely eclipse I Am Legend for the biggest December weekend in box office history. Yesterday, of course, we were looking at estimates, but the real numbers painted a rosier picture for Avatar. The film held almost all of its Saturday audience - a very rare feat - to drop only 3% on Sunday, giving the film a three-day totla of $77.3 million. If you're wondering, that's about $100,000 more than I Am Legend made when it rolled out in December 2007. The adjusted number also pushes the international box office a little higher, to $236.5 million, according to Variety, the sixth-best simultaneous worldwide opening ever. However, we should point out that the majority of blockbusters don't open internationally on the same weekend, so as impressive as that number is, it should not be inferred as having as high a degree of difficulty: 2012 opened with $220 million a month ago on the international stage. Still, Fox has every right to be encouraged, because you don't get a Sunday like that - especially with a blizzard blanketing some of the major moviegoing cities in the country - without unbelievable word of mouth. We've heard both sides here at The Big Picture, but the positive has been a lot more positive than the negative has been negative. Avatar also set an IMAX record, and that significantly impacted the total gross, because you're paying a higher price for the film in those locations. The word of mouth is crucial moving forward. We have discussed how much the film could have cost - and with marketing expenses there's almost no way it got in under $400 hundred million, roughly what Potter and Transformers would have spent this summer - so even with $235 million and change, this one's not out of the woods. It will make its money back; I think that's already clear. But how long it hangs around will determine whether or not it's a "hit" in the way studios view them. The newest example is Monsters vs. Aliens, which made abou $400 million against a $170 million budget, and DreamWorks isn't pursuing a sequel. A standard number is between two dollars and three dollars earned for every dollar spent. In the case of Avatar, even if it makes $800 million worldwide, which is probably about the ceiling, in all honesty, that will not be as good an investment as Fox' Ice Age 3, which has earned almost $900 million on a much cheaper budget. But yes, it will be very successful in terms of the raw numbers. And next weekend will be a major one in the life of this film. Can it repeat? Does Sherlock Holmes topple it? Does it stall out at a 50% loss or is there something to these Sunday numbers? What effect, positive or negative, will the holiday have? Not everything for the future of Avatar will be made clear in the next seven days, of course, but we'll have more to go on. I think it's possible that the film beats the usual box office figure where the opening weekend accounts for 30 - 35% of the total gross. We've seen a few examples this year where films carry over into second, third, and fourth weekends, usually because the competition that follows them doesn't attract big audiences. So if the opening weekend is 25% of the total gross in the US, you're looking at about $240 million. It's still not Titanic, but with the international receipts, it's not bad.

Update on Monday, December 21, 2009 at 10:53PM by Get The Big Picture

**Late Monday, Fox revised its official numbers, and the officially official results have Avatar at just over $77 million, like $77.02 million or something, which is not good enough to topple Will Smith. The Willennium lives on.

Comments

[Kristal]

I'm not surprised it had good returns on Sunday. A lot of places in the NE were too snowed in on Saturday so their plans were pushed back a day. Also word of mouth and critics' reviews have been very strong - A in Cinema Score and a great score on http://www.moviereviewintelligence.com - meaning it should have legs over the holidays.

[Vince]

I think this and "Sherlock Holmes" will be neck and neck for the top spot. Hell, we can't even count out "Alvin and the Chipmunks" either. I don't see "Avatar" dropping much more than 50%. Even if it does hit that number, it won't crash- it's all due to the different movies hitting parts of the same audience. I think it could still hit $300 million when all is said and done. "I Am Legend" opened on the same weekend 2 years ago and made $250 after its run, so this movie, with better word of mouth & higher ticket prices could at very least do the same.

This, "Holmes" and "Alvin" should all hit $40 million next week, I feel. Hopefully. When was the last time three movies did that anyway?

[Nelson]

it's doing so damn well because everyone has loved it so far. look at The Blind Side - it became a box office smash hit through word of mouth alone. Avatar has critics on its side this time - it could still do some serious work, especially if Sherlock Holmes gets reviewed poorly, which, judging from the trailers, it will be

[Get The Big Picture]

Actually, Sherlock is doing reasonably well with critics and it's more of a known quantity than Avatar (top fictional character in the world and all), so that has to be a factor, too.

[Honz Brix]

I'm sticking with my prediction that Avatar would start out kind of slow in its opening weekend and most of its domestic gross would come after that. It didn't actually start out slow but it kind of started out slower than most would have originally predicted. I said it would be similar to Titanic not in overall numbers but the way the word of mouth carries it. Titanic did 95% of its domestic gross after opening weekend. I don't see Avatar doing that well, but i think it could do 75%. That would put it just over $300 million. I think it will be more like The Hangover which did $45 million opening weekend and went on to do 84% of its gross after that. It's very interesting though because i thought the buzz for The Hangover heading in was better than Avatar. The reception that the previews The Hangover got was outstanding. I thought the reception from the Avatar trailers was kind of poor and killed the buzz, but yet Avatar opened with $77 million to $45 million. I know the higher ticket prices could have been a big factor but still didn't expect that much. The word of mouth seems better for Avatar but can it really sustain its audience like The Hangover did for so long? Time will tell. The Hangover dropped only 27% of its audience 2nd weekend against stiff competion from Up and Pelham 123. I think the Chipmunks and Sherlock will be stronger than the 3rd weekend from Up and Pelham but we will have to see how much of its audience it holds. If it can hold to just a 30% drop thats roughly a $55 million 2nd weekend. If that happens which would be incredible but, certainly possible with vacation coming up, we may have have something to keep our eye on for the next 2 months. I think with the Sunday hold and xmas vacation coming up this has a great shot at doing something special

[Get The Big Picture]

The difference is, there's a lot more direct competition for Avatar - beginning with Holmes, which pulls a fair percentage of the same audience - on down the line until summer. There are at least eight movies you can look at and say they're going to draw some of Avatar's crowd between now and summer. I'll be really curious to see what kind of impact some of the lesser movies in that run - Daybreakers, The Crazies, etc. - can do. Will Avatar hurt their performance or, a month in or longer, will Avatar be vulnerable?

[Honz Brix]

I'm still thinking atleast $55 million this weekend Colin. Look at the hold on Sunday and Monday. When was the last time 3 movies all made over $50 million on the same weekend? Could happen this weekend. Then again i could see Holmes disappointing a liitle and only doing $40 million

[Lengthy Johnson]

I would think that Holmes would suffer more from the competition with Avatar than vice versa.

Holmes har a more narrow target audience than Avatar and I would think that the people who see Holmes are more likely to want to also experience the 3D marvel of Avatar, than vice versa.

Avatar should be seen in the cinema, while Holmes will do just as well on BluRay.

Also, when is the last time Guy Richie had a huge hit? And James Cameron?