Fearless Forecast: 'Avatar' Wins Big Holiday Weekend

I had forgotten that Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel was even being released on Wednesday, but parents across the country didn't get that luxury. $19 million worth of families lined up to see Alvin on Wednesday, knocking Avatar from its perch. I certainly didn't think Alvin would have a mid-week launch so close to $20 million, but that could impact its Friday audience, given that Friday is Halloween or Arbor Day or whatever. Sherlock Holmes, Nine, and It's Complicated enter the fray on Friday, and there is talk that this could be a Christmas weekend record at the box office, especially because the top three films - based on projections - could approach $150 million by themselves. The 2009 box office is already over $10 billion, the first time in history we've reached the 11th digit, and by the end of the year, we could be half a billion dollars ahead of 2008's total. Oh, and it's almost $3 billion more than the 1999 figures, so that's a pretty good jump, and double the gross figure from 20 years ago. Avatar didn't lose audience on Wednesday, sticking in the $16 millions for the third straight day. The total revenue is now around $125 million. We won't see a decline until Thursday's numbers are reported, because Christmas Eve is almost always a steep decline from the 23rd for everthing. Then it should go back up at least on Friday and Saturday, when we'll start to see what influence other films have on its steady climb and vice versa. I think the way it's pacing is a good sign for Avatar to repeat this weekend. I'm predicting a 30% loss from the first weekend, which is a very good hold. If Alvin had waited for the Friday, it might have had a chance to overtake it, but the strong Wednesday should translate to a flatter Friday. It will bounce back on Saturday, I think, and put up about $45 - $50 million. That's good enough for second place, and Holmes should round out the top three with a mid-$40 million debut. The Top Five:
1 - Avatar ($53 million)
2 - Alvin and the Chipmunks ($47.5 million)
3 - Sherlock Holmes ($44 million)
4 - It's Complicated ($23 million)
5 - Up in the Air ($11 million)