Box Office - 'Sherlock' Edges 'Avatar' on Christmas

It's shaping up to be a monstrous holiday weekend at the box office with two films now expected to make in the neighborhood of $60 - $70 million. Because of its Wednesday release, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel will be in that territory, as well, but it's over the five-day weekend instead of a traditional three-day frame. Sherlock Holmes earned an estimated $25 million on Friday, and I won't say it beat Avatar so much as it just made more money that day. Avatar is right behind it ($24 million), and could take the weekend anyway, although I thought Holmes would be well below this amount to start the weekend, so if the Friday word of mouth is good, it should keep James Cameron at bay or at least keep him from winning by a wide margin. Sherlock is playing on a few more screens, which will help, and it's more of a family-friendly film in terms of a light entertainment. I saw it yesterday and the crowds were really diverse in absolutely dreadful weather and ice-covered roads, which is a good sign for the film. Again, both of these films should hit $60 million without too much effort; Saturday should be a little smaller for each title because it's the second-busiest shopping day of the year, or so we're told, but they'll still generate plenty of traffic. Chipmunks slipped to third with $12 million on Friday, and it has almost no chance of winning the weekend. It's Complicated took fourth place and is on pace for a mid-$20s weekend, a good enough start for the baby boomer rom-com. This is the kind of film that will play for a couple months because it primarily attracts a crowd that doesn't always go to movies on the opening weekends. The expanded Up in the Air earned $4 million on Friday, and should finish the weekend in fifth or sixth place, depending on how well The Blind Side does the rest of the way. If Avatar continues on its current pace - which has always been its pace - then we're looking at around $200 million in ten days, putting the film in the range from the 8th to 13th fastest movies to accomplish that feat. Everything else on the list is a sequel. But now the fight truly begins for Avatar; I don't think anyone assumed it would make less than $200 million, although it arrived there very quickly. Now that Holmes is around and the sci-fi film will begin to rely more on repeat business almost as much as new business, its ability to go above and beyond $300, $350 million will be tested. If it can stay above $25 million for the next two weekends (the 1st and the 8th of January), then certainly, a final resting place in the upper half of the $300 millions is probable. This weekend is going to look gargantuan because the audience will barely drop at all, but that's common in these circumstances. Usually, it's not $70 million we're talking about, but there is a make-up round where most films suffer a steep decline in the third weekend. In this case, I still think we're looking at around $35 - $40 million next weekend and another $25 - $30 million the weekend after that, based solely on the weekday holds it's achieved, so if you take the high end of those estimates, it's looking very rosy for Mr. Cameron.

Comments

[Honz Brix]

One quick question Colin. I live in a rural town 25 miles from the nearest theater. For me, if i'm going shopping, i'm also going to catch a movie which i think is the case for most people that live in towns like this. Don't you think that a busy shopping day can actually help the movies perform better just on the fact that more people are in the malls and the cities? I just think more people would pass up going to a movie on christmas day and go the day after if they are going to be out running around the cityanyways.

[Get The Big Picture]

You'd think that, but in general, the day after Christmas is a little slower. PG or G movies fare better, but on the whole, theaters trend down on the 26th.

[joe_6285]

I just found out that Avatar is going to win this weekend let’s hope that happens as it turns out that way only.THIS XMAS WEEKEND BIGGEST EVER! ‘Avatar’ Back On Top For #1 Saturday By Beating ‘Sherlock Holmes’; ‘Squeakquel’ #3.
Read this article.
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/first-look-alvin-2-beats-avatar/

[Honz Brix]

Thanx for the link Joe. I was actually going to comment about the $23.5 million Avatar did on Friday which compared to opening weekend is exact if you subtract the midnight numbers on opening day. Avatar did just below $27 million opening day and $3 million midnight so thats just below $24 million opening friday last week. So now its possible Avatar drops 0% this weekend or might even do better than opening weekend. Just incredible what this movie is doing so far. I will be seeing it 2 more times this week. Me and some friends went on xmas eve but the show we were going to see was cancelled due to technical difficulties so its been 6 days since i last saw it. I need my Avatar fix

[Lengthy Johnson]

Don't forget the international takings, which are larger than the US domestic takings. These numbers are from the-numbers.com:

Total US Gross $160,768,053
International Gross $221,052,697
Worldwide Gross $381,820,750

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/AVATR.php

I don't know what the official point of break-even is for Avatar, but I think that the film still has a lot of life left in the cinemas. It will definitely will do well on the DVD/BluRay market as well, as a lot of people will want it for their home cinemas.

I don't see Avatar being a financial failure, at least.

[Get The Big Picture]

Oh, it's higher than that now. It's not going to be a failure by any stretch of the imagination. I do still wonder what it means for bigger budget projects when there's clear evidence across the board that it doesn't need to be a $200 million+ movie to engage audiences right now. But Avatar is going to be more successful than anyone at Fox ever dreamed it would.

[Lengthy Johnson]

It's hard to guess what it means for the future.

Clearly, movie projects on the same scale as Avatar are not practical for the run-of-the-mill daily business of film studios. Besides, there aren't many directors with the skill and dedication to pull it off. If a project on this scale flops, it could quite easily put a lot of people out of business.

I think studios would be more interested in maximising the profits on cheap and fast movies. By the same token it is rather amazing how few of the $30 million budget movies that actually make a profit, while most $100 million movies do well.

But the good thing is that Cameron has demonstrated the viability of mammoth projects and that we might be more likely to see a few of them in the future.